342 lines
13 KiB
Plaintext
342 lines
13 KiB
Plaintext
{
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"cells": [
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"# 03 — Treasury & Pool Analysis\n",
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"\n",
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"Analyzing the flow of value through the TEC's key pools:\n",
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"- Common Pool (funding source for conviction voting)\n",
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"- Reserve Pool (bonding curve collateral)\n",
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"- Token balances and USD valuations over time\n",
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"- Treasury health and sustainability metrics"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"import pandas as pd\n",
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"import numpy as np\n",
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"import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
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"import matplotlib.dates as mdates\n",
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"import seaborn as sns\n",
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"\n",
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"sns.set_theme(style='whitegrid', palette='deep')\n",
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"plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = (14, 6)\n",
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"plt.rcParams['figure.dpi'] = 100\n",
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"\n",
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"DATA = '../data/onchain'\n",
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"\n",
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"# Load pool data\n",
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"common = pd.read_csv(f'{DATA}/dune_common_pool.csv')\n",
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"reserve = pd.read_csv(f'{DATA}/dune_reserve_pool.csv')\n",
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"balances = pd.read_csv(f'{DATA}/dune_token_balances_usd.csv')\n",
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"\n",
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"# Parse dates\n",
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"common['date'] = pd.to_datetime(common['day'])\n",
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"reserve['date'] = pd.to_datetime(reserve['day'])\n",
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"balances['date'] = pd.to_datetime(balances['day'])\n",
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"\n",
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"print('Common Pool:', common['date'].min().date(), 'to', common['date'].max().date(), f'({len(common)} rows)')\n",
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"print('Reserve Pool:', reserve['date'].min().date(), 'to', reserve['date'].max().date(), f'({len(reserve)} rows)')\n",
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"print('Token Balances:', balances['date'].min().date(), 'to', balances['date'].max().date(), f'({len(balances)} rows)')\n",
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"print('\\nToken symbols in balances:', balances['token_symbol'].unique())"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## 1. Common Pool & Reserve Pool Over Time (Gnosis Chain era)"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"fig, axes = plt.subplots(3, 1, figsize=(16, 14), sharex=True)\n",
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"\n",
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"# Common Pool balance\n",
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"ax = axes[0]\n",
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"ax.plot(common['date'], common['balance'], color='#2ecc71', linewidth=1.5)\n",
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"ax.fill_between(common['date'], common['balance'], alpha=0.2, color='#2ecc71')\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Balance (native token)')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Common Pool Balance Over Time')\n",
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"# Annotate key levels\n",
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"ax.axhline(y=common['balance'].iloc[0], color='gray', linestyle='--', alpha=0.3)\n",
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"ax.text(common['date'].iloc[0], common['balance'].iloc[0] * 1.02,\n",
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" f'Start: {common[\"balance\"].iloc[0]:,.0f}', fontsize=9)\n",
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"ax.text(common['date'].iloc[-1], common['balance'].iloc[-1] * 1.02,\n",
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" f'End: {common[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f}', fontsize=9)\n",
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"\n",
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"# Reserve Pool balance\n",
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"ax = axes[1]\n",
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"ax.plot(reserve['date'], reserve['balance'], color='#3498db', linewidth=1.5)\n",
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"ax.fill_between(reserve['date'], reserve['balance'], alpha=0.2, color='#3498db')\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Balance (native token)')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Reserve Pool Balance Over Time')\n",
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"ax.text(reserve['date'].iloc[0], reserve['balance'].iloc[0] * 1.02,\n",
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" f'Start: {reserve[\"balance\"].iloc[0]:,.0f}', fontsize=9)\n",
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"ax.text(reserve['date'].iloc[-1], reserve['balance'].iloc[-1] * 1.02,\n",
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" f'End: {reserve[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f}', fontsize=9)\n",
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"\n",
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"# Inflows & outflows for common pool\n",
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"ax = axes[2]\n",
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"ax.bar(common['date'], common['inflow'], color='#2ecc71', alpha=0.6, label='Inflow', width=1)\n",
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"ax.bar(common['date'], -common['outflow'].abs(), color='#e74c3c', alpha=0.6, label='Outflow', width=1)\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Flow Amount')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Common Pool Daily Flows')\n",
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"ax.legend()\n",
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"ax.axhline(y=0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)\n",
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"\n",
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"for ax in axes:\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%b %Y'))\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.MonthLocator(interval=2))\n",
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"\n",
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"plt.setp(axes[-1].xaxis.get_majorticklabels(), rotation=45)\n",
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"plt.tight_layout()\n",
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"plt.savefig(f'{DATA}/../snapshots/treasury_pools.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')\n",
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"plt.show()\n",
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"\n",
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"# Key metrics\n",
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"cp_drawdown = (common['balance'].iloc[-1] - common['balance'].max()) / common['balance'].max()\n",
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"rp_drawdown = (reserve['balance'].iloc[-1] - reserve['balance'].max()) / reserve['balance'].max()\n",
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"print(f'\\nCommon Pool: {common[\"balance\"].max():,.0f} peak → {common[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f} end ({cp_drawdown:.1%} drawdown)')\n",
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"print(f'Reserve Pool: {reserve[\"balance\"].max():,.0f} peak → {reserve[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f} end ({rp_drawdown:.1%} drawdown)')"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## 2. Post-Migration Token Balances (Optimism era)"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"# Pivot balances by token\n",
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"fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(16, 10))\n",
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"\n",
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"for token in balances['token_symbol'].unique():\n",
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" subset = balances[balances['token_symbol'] == token].sort_values('date')\n",
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" \n",
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" # Native balance\n",
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" axes[0].plot(subset['date'], subset['balance'], label=token, linewidth=1.5)\n",
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" # USD balance\n",
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" axes[1].plot(subset['date'], subset['balance_usd_f'], label=token, linewidth=1.5)\n",
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"\n",
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"axes[0].set_ylabel('Token Balance')\n",
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"axes[0].set_title('Treasury Token Balances (Post-Migration)')\n",
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"axes[0].legend()\n",
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"\n",
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"axes[1].set_ylabel('USD Value')\n",
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"axes[1].set_title('Treasury USD Valuation')\n",
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"axes[1].legend()\n",
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"\n",
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"for ax in axes:\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%b %Y'))\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.MonthLocator(interval=2))\n",
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"\n",
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"plt.setp(axes[-1].xaxis.get_majorticklabels(), rotation=45)\n",
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"plt.tight_layout()\n",
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"plt.savefig(f'{DATA}/../snapshots/treasury_balances_usd.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')\n",
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"plt.show()\n",
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"\n",
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"# Total USD over time\n",
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"total_usd = balances.groupby('date')['balance_usd_f'].sum().sort_index()\n",
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"print(f'\\nTotal treasury USD:')\n",
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"print(f' Max: ${total_usd.max():,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Min: ${total_usd.min():,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Latest: ${total_usd.iloc[-1]:,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Drawdown from max: {(total_usd.iloc[-1] - total_usd.max()) / total_usd.max():.1%}')"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## 3. Treasury Sustainability Analysis\n",
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"\n",
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"How long could the treasury sustain operations at various burn rates?"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"# Calculate net flow rates for common pool\n",
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"common_monthly = common.set_index('date').resample('ME').agg({\n",
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" 'inflow': 'sum',\n",
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" 'outflow': 'sum',\n",
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" 'balance': 'last'\n",
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"})\n",
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"common_monthly['net_flow'] = common_monthly['inflow'] - common_monthly['outflow'].abs()\n",
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"\n",
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"fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(16, 10))\n",
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"\n",
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"# Monthly net flows\n",
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"ax = axes[0]\n",
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"colors = ['#2ecc71' if v >= 0 else '#e74c3c' for v in common_monthly['net_flow']]\n",
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"ax.bar(common_monthly.index, common_monthly['net_flow'], color=colors, width=20)\n",
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"ax.axhline(y=0, color='black', linewidth=0.5)\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Net Flow')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Common Pool Monthly Net Flows (positive = growing)')\n",
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"ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%b %Y'))\n",
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"\n",
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"# Runway analysis\n",
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"ax = axes[1]\n",
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"# Monthly outflow rate\n",
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"monthly_outflow = common_monthly['outflow'].abs()\n",
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"ax.bar(common_monthly.index, monthly_outflow, color='#e74c3c', alpha=0.6, width=20)\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Monthly Outflow')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Common Pool Monthly Spending')\n",
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"ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%b %Y'))\n",
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"\n",
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"# Add trend line\n",
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"avg_outflow = monthly_outflow.mean()\n",
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"ax.axhline(y=avg_outflow, color='red', linestyle='--', alpha=0.5,\n",
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" label=f'Avg: {avg_outflow:,.0f}/month')\n",
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"ax.legend()\n",
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"\n",
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"plt.tight_layout()\n",
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"plt.savefig(f'{DATA}/../snapshots/treasury_sustainability.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')\n",
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"plt.show()\n",
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"\n",
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"print(f'\\nSustainability metrics:')\n",
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"print(f' Avg monthly outflow: {avg_outflow:,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Avg monthly inflow: {common_monthly[\"inflow\"].mean():,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Avg monthly net: {common_monthly[\"net_flow\"].mean():,.0f}')\n",
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"print(f' Months with negative net flow: {(common_monthly[\"net_flow\"] < 0).sum()}/{len(common_monthly)}')"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## 4. Reserve Ratio Analysis\n",
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"\n",
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"The ABC's reserve ratio determines the price curve shape. How did it evolve?"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"# Reserve ratio = reserve_balance / (token_supply * price)\n",
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"# We can approximate from pool data\n",
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"# For now, show reserve pool vs common pool ratio\n",
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"\n",
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"# Align dates\n",
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"common_daily = common.set_index('date')['balance'].resample('D').last().ffill()\n",
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"reserve_daily = reserve.set_index('date')['balance'].resample('D').last().ffill()\n",
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"\n",
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"aligned = pd.DataFrame({\n",
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" 'common_pool': common_daily,\n",
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" 'reserve_pool': reserve_daily\n",
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"}).dropna()\n",
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"\n",
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"aligned['total'] = aligned['common_pool'] + aligned['reserve_pool']\n",
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"aligned['reserve_share'] = aligned['reserve_pool'] / aligned['total']\n",
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"aligned['common_share'] = aligned['common_pool'] / aligned['total']\n",
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"\n",
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"fig, axes = plt.subplots(2, 1, figsize=(16, 10))\n",
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"\n",
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"ax = axes[0]\n",
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"ax.stackplot(aligned.index,\n",
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" aligned['reserve_pool'], aligned['common_pool'],\n",
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" labels=['Reserve Pool', 'Common Pool'],\n",
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" colors=['#3498db', '#2ecc71'], alpha=0.7)\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Balance')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Pool Composition Over Time')\n",
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"ax.legend(loc='upper right')\n",
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"\n",
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"ax = axes[1]\n",
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"ax.plot(aligned.index, aligned['reserve_share'], color='#3498db', linewidth=1.5, label='Reserve Share')\n",
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"ax.plot(aligned.index, aligned['common_share'], color='#2ecc71', linewidth=1.5, label='Common Share')\n",
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"ax.set_ylabel('Share of Total')\n",
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"ax.set_title('Pool Share Ratio Over Time')\n",
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"ax.legend()\n",
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"ax.set_ylim(0, 1)\n",
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"\n",
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"for ax in axes:\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_formatter(mdates.DateFormatter('%b %Y'))\n",
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" ax.xaxis.set_major_locator(mdates.MonthLocator(interval=2))\n",
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"\n",
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"plt.tight_layout()\n",
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"plt.savefig(f'{DATA}/../snapshots/pool_composition.png', dpi=150, bbox_inches='tight')\n",
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"plt.show()\n",
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"\n",
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"print(f'\\nPool composition:')\n",
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"print(f' Start - Reserve: {aligned[\"reserve_share\"].iloc[0]:.1%}, Common: {aligned[\"common_share\"].iloc[0]:.1%}')\n",
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"print(f' End - Reserve: {aligned[\"reserve_share\"].iloc[-1]:.1%}, Common: {aligned[\"common_share\"].iloc[-1]:.1%}')"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "markdown",
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"metadata": {},
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"source": [
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"## 5. Key Findings"
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]
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},
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{
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"cell_type": "code",
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"execution_count": null,
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"metadata": {},
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"outputs": [],
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"source": [
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"print('=' * 60)\n",
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"print('TREASURY & POOLS — KEY FINDINGS')\n",
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"print('=' * 60)\n",
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"print(f'''\n",
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"COMMON POOL:\n",
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" Peak balance: {common[\"balance\"].max():,.0f}\n",
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" Final balance: {common[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f}\n",
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" Total outflows: {common[\"outflow\"].abs().sum():,.0f}\n",
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" Net negative months: {(common_monthly[\"net_flow\"] < 0).sum()}/{len(common_monthly)}\n",
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"\n",
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"RESERVE POOL:\n",
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" Peak balance: {reserve[\"balance\"].max():,.0f}\n",
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" Final balance: {reserve[\"balance\"].iloc[-1]:,.0f}\n",
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"\n",
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"POST-MIGRATION (Optimism):\n",
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" Treasury peaked at: ${total_usd.max():,.0f}\n",
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" Treasury at end: ${total_usd.iloc[-1]:,.0f}\n",
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"\n",
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"KEY QUESTIONS:\n",
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" 1. Was the ABC tribute rate sufficient to replenish the common pool?\n",
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" 2. How did the reserve ratio compare to the theoretical target?\n",
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" 3. Did the treasury drawdown correlate with token price decline?\n",
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" 4. Could different spending limits have extended the runway?\n",
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"''')"
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]
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}
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],
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"metadata": {
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"kernelspec": {
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"display_name": "Python 3",
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"language": "python",
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"name": "python3"
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},
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"language_info": {
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"name": "python",
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"version": "3.11.0"
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}
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},
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"nbformat": 4,
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"nbformat_minor": 4
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}
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