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TEC-analysis
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Jeff Emmett 434cec1311 Add retrospective synthesis + markwhen timeline generator 
- docs/synthesis.md: full TEC post-mortem analysis (Hatch through shutdown, ABC/CV dynamics, treasury, death-spiral narrative)
- scripts/gen_timeline.py: generator that mines cv_proposals.csv and macro events into a markwhen .mw file, renders as interactive timeline + calendar HTML
- .gitleaksignore: allowlist public TEC token contract address (false positive)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.7 (1M context) <noreply@anthropic.com>
 		2026-04-16 16:15:14 -04:00
data Add analysis snapshots and updated notebooks 2026-04-09 15:51:23 -04:00
docs Add retrospective synthesis + markwhen timeline generator 2026-04-16 16:15:14 -04:00
notebooks Add analysis snapshots and updated notebooks 2026-04-09 15:51:23 -04:00
output Add analysis snapshots and updated notebooks 2026-04-09 15:51:23 -04:00
references Add data sources reference and on-chain data collection notebook 2026-04-03 12:29:22 -07:00
scripts Add retrospective synthesis + markwhen timeline generator 2026-04-16 16:15:14 -04:00
src Add conviction voting data and Dune pool balance exports 2026-04-03 13:05:36 -07:00
.gitignore Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00
.gitleaksignore Add retrospective synthesis + markwhen timeline generator 2026-04-16 16:15:14 -04:00
README.md Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00
requirements.txt Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00

README.md

TEC Analysis

Analysis of the Token Engineering Commons (TEC) token dynamics, focusing on:

  • Augmented Bonding Curve (ABC) — primary market pricing, reserve ratio mechanics, entry/exit tribute
  • Conviction Voting — proposal funding, signal dynamics, effective supply
  • Primary vs Secondary Market — price divergence, arbitrage flows, liquidity depth
  • Token Distribution & Governance — holder concentration, voting power, delegation patterns

Structure

TEC-analysis/
├── data/
│   ├── onchain/         # On-chain data exports (ABC txns, CV proposals, token transfers)
│   ├── offchain/        # Off-chain data (forum posts, governance metadata)
│   └── snapshots/       # Point-in-time snapshots of key metrics
├── notebooks/           # Jupyter analysis notebooks
├── src/
│   ├── abc/             # Augmented Bonding Curve models & analysis
│   ├── conviction_voting/  # Conviction Voting analysis
│   ├── liquidity/       # Liquidity & market structure analysis
│   └── utils/           # Shared data fetching, plotting, helpers
├── docs/                # Write-ups, methodology notes
└── references/          # Papers, specs, prior work

Key Questions

  1. ABC Mechanics: How has the bonding curve price tracked vs secondary market (Uniswap/Honeyswap)? What's the effective reserve ratio over time?
  2. Entry/Exit Tribute: How much value has flowed through tributes? Impact on buy/sell asymmetry?
  3. Conviction Voting Dynamics: How does token lockup in CV affect circulating supply and price? What's the effective participation rate?
  4. Liquidity Fragmentation: How deep is liquidity across primary (ABC) vs secondary markets? Where do large trades actually execute?
  5. Price Discovery: Which market leads price discovery — the bonding curve or secondary DEXes?
  6. Governance Concentration: How concentrated is voting power? Do whales dominate proposal outcomes?

Related Local Repos

  • conviction/ — ABC simulations & cadCAD conviction voting models
  • Aragon_Conviction_Voting/ — Algorithm overview & models
  • conviction-voting-cadcad/ — cadCAD simulation framework
  • myco-bonding-curve/ — Bonding curve parameter sweeps & dashboards

Data Sources

To be populated — see below for what's needed.

Setup

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt