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TEC-analysis
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Jeff Emmett 0698ced6fe Add ABC & market analysis notebook, all Dune data downloaded 
All 18 Dune queries now downloaded (98K+ total rows):
- ABC trades: 2,615 detailed + 32K raw (price, reserve, supply per txn)
- DEX trades: 26,107 (Honeyswap + Velodrome), with buys/sells split
- ABC tributes: monthly buy/sell tribute distribution
- Holders: 723 ranked with concentration curve, daily holder changes
- Trade summaries: monthly action breakdowns

Notebook 05 analyzes:
- ABC price history and reserve ratio evolution
- Buy/sell asymmetry (5.6:1 sell:buy ratio)
- Tribute revenue (insufficient to sustain common pool)
- ABC vs DEX price divergence and spread
- Token holder concentration (top holder: gideonro.eth at 13.2%)
- DEX volume and liquidity across Honeyswap/Velodrome

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
 		2026-04-03 13:19:29 -07:00
data Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00
notebooks Add ABC & market analysis notebook, all Dune data downloaded 2026-04-03 13:19:29 -07:00
references Add data sources reference and on-chain data collection notebook 2026-04-03 12:29:22 -07:00
src Add conviction voting data and Dune pool balance exports 2026-04-03 13:05:36 -07:00
.gitignore Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00
README.md Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00
requirements.txt Initial repo structure for TEC token dynamics analysis 2026-04-03 12:20:46 -07:00

README.md

TEC Analysis

Analysis of the Token Engineering Commons (TEC) token dynamics, focusing on:

  • Augmented Bonding Curve (ABC) — primary market pricing, reserve ratio mechanics, entry/exit tribute
  • Conviction Voting — proposal funding, signal dynamics, effective supply
  • Primary vs Secondary Market — price divergence, arbitrage flows, liquidity depth
  • Token Distribution & Governance — holder concentration, voting power, delegation patterns

Structure

TEC-analysis/
├── data/
│   ├── onchain/         # On-chain data exports (ABC txns, CV proposals, token transfers)
│   ├── offchain/        # Off-chain data (forum posts, governance metadata)
│   └── snapshots/       # Point-in-time snapshots of key metrics
├── notebooks/           # Jupyter analysis notebooks
├── src/
│   ├── abc/             # Augmented Bonding Curve models & analysis
│   ├── conviction_voting/  # Conviction Voting analysis
│   ├── liquidity/       # Liquidity & market structure analysis
│   └── utils/           # Shared data fetching, plotting, helpers
├── docs/                # Write-ups, methodology notes
└── references/          # Papers, specs, prior work

Key Questions

  1. ABC Mechanics: How has the bonding curve price tracked vs secondary market (Uniswap/Honeyswap)? What's the effective reserve ratio over time?
  2. Entry/Exit Tribute: How much value has flowed through tributes? Impact on buy/sell asymmetry?
  3. Conviction Voting Dynamics: How does token lockup in CV affect circulating supply and price? What's the effective participation rate?
  4. Liquidity Fragmentation: How deep is liquidity across primary (ABC) vs secondary markets? Where do large trades actually execute?
  5. Price Discovery: Which market leads price discovery — the bonding curve or secondary DEXes?
  6. Governance Concentration: How concentrated is voting power? Do whales dominate proposal outcomes?

Related Local Repos

  • conviction/ — ABC simulations & cadCAD conviction voting models
  • Aragon_Conviction_Voting/ — Algorithm overview & models
  • conviction-voting-cadcad/ — cadCAD simulation framework
  • myco-bonding-curve/ — Bonding curve parameter sweeps & dashboards

Data Sources

To be populated — see below for what's needed.

Setup

python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt