From 8db491fd83f65b9ea5d88ce48035e41c93f6f492 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: sdiehl Date: Sat, 19 Mar 2022 12:17:53 +0000 Subject: [PATCH] Expand more claims --- claims/blockchain-tech.md | 6 ++- claims/environmental-footprint.md | 4 +- claims/is-collapse.md | 4 +- claims/is-gambling.md | 25 ++++++++++- claims/is-opportunity-cost.md | 7 ++- claims/narrative-economics.md | 72 ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++- claims/valuation-model.md | 15 +++++-- guide/index.md | 4 +- site/pages/contribute.md | 1 - 9 files changed, 122 insertions(+), 16 deletions(-) diff --git a/claims/blockchain-tech.md b/claims/blockchain-tech.md index ea7ce83..7668140 100644 --- a/claims/blockchain-tech.md +++ b/claims/blockchain-tech.md @@ -4,6 +4,10 @@ Blockchain technology, detached from the sale of tokens or [crypto assets](../co The technical purpose of blockchains is to create [censorship resistent](../concepts/censorship-resistence.md) networks for the issuance of [crypto asset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) for [regulatory arbitrage](../concepts/regulatory-arbitrage.md) of [securities](../concepts/security.md) law and [illicit financing](../concepts/illicit-financing.md) purposes. There is no proven use case for the technology outside of scofflawing. ## References +1. Schneier, Bruce. 2019. ‘There’s No Good Reason to Trust Blockchain Technology’. Wired Magazine. https://www.wired.com/story/theres-no-good-reason-to-trust-blockchain-technology/. +1. Rosenthal, David. n.d. ‘Stanford Lecture on Cryptocurrency’. Accessed 2 March 2022. https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html. +1. Stinchcombe, Kai. 2017. ‘Ten Years In, Nobody Has Come Up With a Use for Blockchain’. Hackernoon. 22 December 2017. https://hackernoon.com/ten-years-in-nobody-has-come-up-with-a-use-case-for-blockchain-ee98c180100. +1. ———. 2018. ‘Blockchain Is Not Only Crappy Technology but a Bad Vision for the Future’. Medium (blog). 9 April 2018. https://medium.com/@kaistinchcombe/decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec. 1. Orlowski, A. 2018. ‘Blockchain Study Finds 0.00% Success Rate and Vendors Don’t Call Back When Asked for Evidence’. The Register. 1. Diehl, Stephen. 2021. ‘Blockchainism’. 11 December 2021. https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/blockchainism.html. 1. Manski, Sarah, and Michel Bauwens. 2020. ‘Reimagining New Socio-Technical Economics Through the Application of Distributed Ledger Technologies’. Frontiers in Blockchain 2 (January): 1–17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fbloc.2019.00029. @@ -12,8 +16,6 @@ The technical purpose of blockchains is to create [censorship resistent](../conc 1. Diehl, Stephen. 2021a. ‘The Non-Innovation of Cryptocurrency’. 7 July 2021. https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/non-innovation.html. ———. 2021b. ‘The Handwavy Technobabble Nothingburger’. 24 November 2021. https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/nothing-burger.html. 1. Plant, Luke. 2022. ‘The Technological Case against Bitcoin and Blockchain’. Luke Plant’s Home Page. 5 March 2022. https://lukeplant.me.uk/blog/posts/the-technological-case-against-bitcoin-and-blockchain/. -1. Rosenthal, David. n.d. ‘Stanford Lecture on Cryptocurrency’. Accessed 2 March 2022. https://blog.dshr.org/2022/02/ee380-talk.html. -1. Schneier, Bruce. 2019. ‘There’s No Good Reason to Trust Blockchain Technology’. Wired Magazine. https://www.wired.com/story/theres-no-good-reason-to-trust-blockchain-technology/. 1. Weaver, Nicholas. 2018. Blockchains and Cryptocurrencies: Burn It With Fire. Berkeley School of Information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCHab0dNnj4. 1. White, Molly. 2022a. ‘Blockchain-Based Systems Are Not What They Say They Are’. Molly White (blog). 9 January 2022. https://blog.mollywhite.net/blockchains-are-not-what-they-say/. 1. ———. 2022b. ‘It’s Not Still the Early Days’. Molly White. 14 January 2022. https://blog.mollywhite.net/its-not-still-the-early-days/. diff --git a/claims/environmental-footprint.md b/claims/environmental-footprint.md index 7d8af53..3430aea 100644 --- a/claims/environmental-footprint.md +++ b/claims/environmental-footprint.md @@ -5,11 +5,11 @@ Bitcoin [mining](../concepts/mining.md) is enormously harmful to the environment 2. Carbon release from fossil fuels used to power mining data centres 3. Opportunity cost of the energy used to run [consensus algorithm](../concepts/consensus-algorithm.md) compared to more efficient of efficient [real time gross settlement systems](../concepts/rtgs.md) and traditional [payment rails](transnational-payment.md) such as SWIFT, SEPA, Visa and ACH. -Crypto assets are not [providing access to the unbanked](crypto-unbanked.md) and cannot fulfil even a fraction of the services provided by the global banking sector. Crypto assets like [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) are simply a very inefficient and settlement to issue a speculative [cryptoasset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) used primarily for [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) and [illicit financing](../concepts/illicit-financing.md). +Crypto assets are not [providing access to the unbanked](crypto-unbanked.md) and cannot fulfil even a tiny fraction of the services provided by the global banking sector. Crypto assets like [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) are simply a very inefficient and settlement to issue a speculative [cryptoasset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) used primarily for [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) and [illicit financing](../concepts/illicit-financing.md). BItcoin mining has the equivalent power consumption of the state of Argentina, a country with a population of 45 million people. Bitcoin mining has an e-waste footprint comparable to that of entire population of Germany. -Bitcoin mining uses collectively consumes more power than all data centres run by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Facebook and YouTube put together. +Bitcoin mining collectively consumes more power than all data centres run by Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Apple, Netflix, Facebook and YouTube put together. Bitcoin is simply one of thousands of crypto assets which use PoW algorithm, including the second largest asset Ethereum which together with all other assets sum some to an even larger environmental footprint and difficult to calculate environmental footprint. diff --git a/claims/is-collapse.md b/claims/is-collapse.md index bf317c9..dcf5e15 100644 --- a/claims/is-collapse.md +++ b/claims/is-collapse.md @@ -1 +1,3 @@ -# Are crypto tokens a means to accelerate the collapse of capitalism? \ No newline at end of file +# Are crypto tokens a means to accelerate the collapse of capitalism? + +## References \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/claims/is-gambling.md b/claims/is-gambling.md index ffeb63e..ce83763 100644 --- a/claims/is-gambling.md +++ b/claims/is-gambling.md @@ -1,8 +1,31 @@ # Crypto assets are a form of gambling +Purchasing crypto assets is a form of gambling. Crypto assets have no [income](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) and [use value](../concepts/use-value.md) and are [zero-sum games](../concepts/zero-sum-game.md) and thus have no [fundamental value](../concepts/fundamental-value.md). Trying to time the market of crypto assets is equivalent to games of chance and [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) with a negative [expected return](../concepts/expected-return.md). This is strictly worse behaviour than participating in [price-formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) in the [stock](../concepts/stock.md) and [commodity](../concepts/commodity.md) markets. + +Crypto assets are not gambling if one participates in a [cartel](../concepts/cartel.md) which does [pump and dump schemes](../concepts/pump-and-dump.md) or other forms of [market manipulation](../concepts/market-manipulation.md) which uses [asymmetric information](../concepts/asymmetric-information.md) to defraud other market participants. Pump and dump schemes result in a net wealth transfer from the larger [market](../concepts/market.md) to a small set of insiders. + +## References +1. Barrett, Claer. 2021. ‘Why Young Investors Bet the Farm on Cryptocurrencies’. Financial Times, 28 May 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/162839aa-0437-478b-a4d4-4a8d7ab71458. +1. Powell, Jamie. 2019. ‘Crypto-Shills’. Financial Times. https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/11/29/1543469404000/Crypto-shills/. +1. Dhawan, Anirudh, and Tālis J Putniņš. 2020. ‘A New Wolf in Town? Pump-and-Dump Manipulation in Cryptocurrency Markets’. Pump-and-Dump Manipulation in Cryptocurrency Markets (August 10, 2020). +1. Dhawan, Anirudh, and Talis J. Putnins. 2020. ‘A New Wolf in Town? Pump-and-Dump Manipulation in Cryptocurrency Markets’. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3670714. +1. Hamrick, JT, Farhang Rouhi, Arghya Mukherjee, Amir Feder, Neil Gandal, Tyler Moore, and Marie Vasek. 2018a. ‘An Examination of the Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Ecosystem’. http://ssrn.com/paper=3303365. +1. ———. 2018b. ‘The Economics of Cryptocurrency Pump and Dump Schemes’. +1. Kamps, Josh, and Bennett Kleinberg. 2018. ‘To the Moon: Defining and Detecting Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dumps’. Crime Science 7 (1): 18. +1. Li, Tao, Donghwa Shin, and Baolian Wang. 2019. ‘Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Schemes’. Available at SSRN 3267041. +1. Xu, Jiahua, and Benjamin Livshits. 2019. ‘The Anatomy of a Cryptocurrency Pump-and-Dump Scheme’. In 28th USENIX Security Symposium, 1609–25. +1. Corbet, Shaen. 2021. Understanding Cryptocurrency Fraud: The Challenges and Headwinds to Regulate Digital Currencies. Vol. 2. Walter de Gruyter GmbH & Co KG. +1. Roubini, Nouriel. 2019. ‘The Great Crypto Heist’. Project Syndicate 16. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/cryptocurrency-exchanges-are-financial-scams-by-nouriel-roubini-2019-07. +1. Diehl, Stephen. n.d. ‘The Case Against Crypto’. Accessed 17 February 2022. https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/against-crypto.html. +1. Krugman, Paul. 2013. ‘Bitcoin Is Evil’. Paul Krugman Blog (blog). 28 December 2013. https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/12/28/bitcoin-is-evil/. +1. ———. 2018a. ‘Bitcoin Is Basically a Ponzi Scheme’. The Seattle Times 30. +1. ———. 2018b. ‘Transaction Costs and Tethers: Why I’m a Crypto Skeptic’. The New York Times 21. +1. ———. 2021. ‘The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin’. The New York Times 21. +1. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2021. ‘Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility’. ArXiv:2106.14204 [Physics, q-Fin], July. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204. +1. Weaver, Nicholas. 2018. Blockchains and Cryptocurrencies: Burn It With Fire. Berkeley School of Information. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCHab0dNnj4. ## References * [@knauer_what_2019] * [@barrett_why_2021] * [@powell_crypto-shills_2019] * [@panos_financial_2019] -* [@koning_bitcoin_2020] +* [@koning_bitcoin_2020] \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/claims/is-opportunity-cost.md b/claims/is-opportunity-cost.md index a9bfc08..8fb4b98 100644 --- a/claims/is-opportunity-cost.md +++ b/claims/is-opportunity-cost.md @@ -1 +1,6 @@ -# Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services? \ No newline at end of file +# Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services? + +## References +1. Cembalest, Michael. 2022. ‘The Maltese Falcoin: On Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains’. +1. Amato, Massimo, and Luca Fantacci. 2020. A Fistful of Bitcoins: The Risks and Opportunities of Virtual Currencies. Bocconi University Press. https://www.egeaeditore.it/ita/prodotti/economia/a-fistful-of-bitcoins.aspx. +1. Coeckelbergh, Mark. 2015. Money Machines: Electronic Financial Technologies, Distancing and Responsibility in Global Finance. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.1177/0094306116671949n. diff --git a/claims/narrative-economics.md b/claims/narrative-economics.md index ac52266..ea86a18 100644 --- a/claims/narrative-economics.md +++ b/claims/narrative-economics.md @@ -1,10 +1,78 @@ -# What is the narrative of crypto assets? -Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md). +# What is the narrative economics of crypto assets? +The economist Robert J. Shiller defines [narrative economics](../concepts/narrative-economics.md) as: + +> Epidemiology of narratives relevant to economic fluctuations. The human brain has always been highly tuned towards narratives, whether factual or not, to justify ongoing actions, even such basic actions as spending and investing. Stories motivate and connect activities to deeply felt values and needs. Narratives “go viral” and spread far, even worldwide, with economic impact. + +The phenomenon of [cryptoasset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) and their [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) nature is largely driven by narratives, which may differ drastically between projects. Bitcoin has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md). +Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md). + Dogecoin is an example of a crypto asset with no political imaginaries, no [currency](currency.md) narrative, no pretense of [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no narrative economics whatsoever. it is a pure manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md) with an investment thesis rooted purely in [financial nihilism](ideologies/financial-nihilism.md). +## Narrative Claims +* Cypherpunk +* Anarchism +* [Libertarianism](../concepts/ideologies/libertarianism.md) +* [Cryptoanarchism](../concepts/ideologies/cryptoanarchism.md) +* [Financial Nihilism](../concepts/ideologies/financial-nihilism.md) +* [Post State Technocracy](../concepts/ideologies/post-state-technocracy.md) +* [Technolibertarianism](../concepts/idelogies/technolibertarianism.md) +* [Technosolutionism](../concepts/ideologies/technosolutionism.md) +* [Technocollectivism](../concepts/ideologies/techno-collectivism.md) +* [Accelerationism](../concepts/ideologies/accelerationism.md) + +## References +1. Shiller, Robert J. 2017. ‘Narrative Economics’. American Economic Review 107 (4): 967–1004. +1. Reijers, Wessel, and Mark Coeckelbergh. 2018. ‘The Blockchain as a Narrative Technology: Investigating the Social Ontology and Normative Configurations of Cryptocurrencies’. Philosophy and Technology 31 (1): 103–30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13347-016-0239-x. +* Golumbia, David. 2013a. ‘Cyberlibertarianism: The Extremist Foundations of “Digital Freedom.”’ Clemson University Department of English. +1. Babu, Asvatha. 2020. ‘Behind the Veil of Decentralization: Analyzing Blockchain Frames and Sponsors in US News’. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3749482. +1. Ailon, Galit. 2022. ‘The Double Meaning of Money’. Sociological Theory, 073527512110711. https://doi.org/10.1177/07352751211071121. +1. Becker, Katrin. 2022. ‘Blockchain Matters—Lex Cryptographia and the Displacement of Legal Symbolics and Imaginaries’. Law and Critique. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10978-021-09317-8. +1. Faustino, Sandra, Inês Faria, and Rafael Marques. 2021. ‘The Myths and Legends of King Satoshi and the Knights of Blockchain’. Journal of Cultural Economy 0 (0): 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1080/17530350.2021.1921830. +1. Hellegren, Z. Isadora. 2017. ‘A History of Crypto-Discourse: Encryption as a Site of Struggles to Define Internet Freedom’. Internet Histories 1 (4): 285–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/24701475.2017.1387466. +1. Maddox, Alexia, and Luke J Heemsbergen. 2021. ‘Digging in Crypto-Communities’ Future-Making: From Dark to Doge’. M/C Journal 24 (2 SE-). https://doi.org/10.5204/mcj.2755. +1. Narayanan, Arvind. 2013. ‘What Happened to the Crypto Dream?, Part 1’. IEEE Security & Privacy 11 (2): 75–76. +1. Olson, Dan. 2022. Line Goes Up – The Problem With NFTs. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YQ_xWvX1n9g. +1. Gerard, David. 2017. Attack of the 50 Foot Blockchain: Bitcoin, Blockchain, Ethereum & Smart Contracts. David Gerard. +1. Krugman, Paul. 2021a. ‘Technobabble, Libertarian Derp and Bitcoin’. The New York Times 21. +1. ———. 2021b. ‘The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin’. The New York Times 21. +1. ———. 2022. ‘The Strange Alliance of Crypto and MAGA Believers’. The New York Times, 11 January 2022, sec. Opinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/opinion/crypto-cryptocurrency-money-conspiracy.html. +1. Stinchcombe, Kai. 2018. ‘Blockchain Is Not Only Crappy Technology but a Bad Vision for the Future’. Medium (blog). 9 April 2018. https://medium.com/@kaistinchcombe/decentralized-and-trustless-crypto-paradise-is-actually-a-medieval-hellhole-c1ca122efdec. +1. White, Molly. 2022. ‘Blockchain-Based Systems Are Not What They Say They Are’. Molly White (blog). 9 January 2022. https://blog.mollywhite.net/blockchains-are-not-what-they-say/. +* Brody, Ann, and Stéphane Couture. 2021. ‘Ideologies and Imaginaries in Blockchain Communities: The Case of Ethereum’. Canadian Journal of Communication 46 (3). https://doi.org/10.22230/cjc.2021v46n3a3701. +* Doody, Sean. 2020. ‘Reactionary Technopolitics: A Critical Sociohistorical Review’. Fast Capitalism 17 (1): 143–64. https://doi.org/10.32855/fcapital.202001.009. +* *———. 2013b. ‘Cyberlibertarians’ Digital Deletion of the Left: Technological Innovation Does Not Inherently Promote the Left’s Goals’. Retrieved 2 (10): 2014. +* *———. 2015. ‘Bitcoin as Politics: Distributed Right-Wing Extremism’. MoneyLab Reader: An Intervention in Digital Economy, Amsterdam: Institute of Network Cultures. +* *———. 2016. The Politics of Bitcoin: Software as Right-Wing Extremism. U of Minnesota Press. +* *———. 2018. ‘Zealots of the Blockchain: The True Believers of the Bitcoin Cult’. The Baffler, no. 38: 102–11. +* Groos, Jan. 2021. ‘Crypto Politics: Notes on Sociotechnical Imaginaries of Governance in Blockchain Based Technologies’. In Data Loam, 1:148–70. https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110697841-009. +* Hayden, Micahel, and Megan Squire. n.d. ‘How Cryptocurrency Revolutionized the White Supremacist Movement’. Souther Poverty Law Center. Accessed 3 March 2022. https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch/2021/12/09/how-cryptocurrency-revolutionized-white-supremacist-movement. +* Husain, Syed Omer, Alex Franklin, and Dirk Roep. 2020. ‘The Political Imaginaries of Blockchain Projects: Discerning the Expressions of an Emerging Ecosystem’. Sustainability Science, 1–16. +* Hussain, Syed Omer. 2020. ‘Prefigurative Post-Politics as Strategy: The Case of Government-Led Blockchain Projects’. The Journal of The British Blockchain Association 3 (1): 1–11. https://doi.org/10.31585/jbba-3-1-(2)2020. +* The Economist. 2022. ‘The Charm of Cryptocurrencies for White Supremacists’, 5 February 2022. https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/02/05/the-charm-of-cryptocurrencies-for-white-supremacists. +* Anderson, Patrick D. 2021. ‘Privacy for the Weak, Transparency for the Powerful: The Cypherpunk Ethics of Julian Assange’. Ethics and Information Technology 23 (3): 295–308. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-020-09571-x. +* Beltramini, Enrico. 2020. ‘Trust, Finance and Cryptocurrencies’. In Anarchism, Organization and Management, 184–95. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315172606-19. +* *———. 2021. ‘Against Technocratic Authoritarianism. A Short Intellectual History of the Cypherpunk Movement’. Internet Histories 5 (2): 101–18. https://doi.org/10.1080/24701475.2020.1731249. +* Beyer, Jessica L., and Fenwick Mckelvey. 2015. ‘You Are Not Welcome among US: Pirates and the State’. International Journal of Communication 9 (1): 890–908. +* Curran, Giorel, and Morgan Gibson. 2013. ‘WikiLeaks, Anarchism and Technologies of Dissent’. Antipode 45 (2): 294–314. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8330.2012.01009.x. +* DuPont, Isaac Quinn. 2017. ‘An Archeology of Cryptography: Rewriting Plaintext, Encryption, and Ciphertext’. ProQuest Dissertations and Theses. PhD Thesis, University of Toronto (Canada). https://tspace.library.utoronto.ca/handle/1807/78958. +* DuPont, Quinn. 2016. ‘The Politics of Cryptography: Bitcoin and the Ordering Machines’. Journal of Peer Production 1 (4): 1–23. http://peerproduction.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/DuPont_draft_submission.pdf. +* Gehl, Robert W. 2016. ‘Power/Freedom on the Dark Web: A Digital Ethnography of the Dark Web Social Network’. New Media and Society 18 (7): 1219–35. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444814554900. +* Gürses, Seda, Arun Kundnani, and Joris Van Hoboken. 2016. ‘Crypto and Empire: The Contradictions of Counter-Surveillance Advocacy’. Media, Culture and Society 38 (4): 576–90. https://doi.org/10.1177/0163443716643006. +* Hellegren, Isadora. 2020. ‘Crypto-Discourse, Internet Freedom, and the State’. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Communication. https://oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228613.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228613-e-887. +* Hellegren, Z. Isadora. 2017. ‘A History of Crypto-Discourse: Encryption as a Site of Struggles to Define Internet Freedom’. Internet Histories 1 (4): 285–311. https://doi.org/10.1080/24701475.2017.1387466. +* Jarvis, Craig. 2021. ‘Cypherpunk Ideology: Objectives, Profiles, and Influences (1992–1998)’. Internet Histories, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/24701475.2021.1935547. +* May, Tim. 1994. ‘Cyphernomicon’. +* May, Timothy. 1992. ‘The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto’. High Noon on the Electronic Frontier: Conceptual Issues in Cyberspace. +* Moore, Daniel, and Thomas Rid. 2016. ‘Cryptopolitik and the Darknet’. Survival 58 (1): 7–38. https://doi.org/10.1080/00396338.2016.1142085. +* Phillips, David J. 1998. Digital Cash and the Surveillance Society: Negotiating Identification in New Consumer Payment Systems. University of Pennsylvania. https://search.proquest.com/openview/7ca922683fe4b5a94427e0ba59af4def/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y. +* West, Sarah Myers. 2018. ‘Cryptographic Imaginaries and the Networked Public’. Internet Policy Review 7 (2): 1–16. https://doi.org/10.14763/2018.2.792. +* *———. 2020. ‘Survival of the Cryptic: Tracing Technological Imaginaries across Ideologies, Infrastructures, and Community Practices’. New Media and Society, 1461444820983017. https://doi.org/10.1177/1461444820983017. + +TODO: group by narrative + ## References * [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015] * [@reijers_blockchain_2018] diff --git a/claims/valuation-model.md b/claims/valuation-model.md index 68bdf6d..97ab825 100644 --- a/claims/valuation-model.md +++ b/claims/valuation-model.md @@ -1,11 +1,18 @@ # Crypto assets do not have a verifiable valuation model -Crypto tokens have no reliable [valuation method](../concepts/valuation-model.md). It is not possible to develop a theoretical [value](../concepts/value.md) for a crypto token because there is no demand curve generated by a [use case](../concepts/use-value.md) or any [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) associated with the [security](../concepts/security.md). Crypto tokens thus have a strictly zero [fundamental value](../concepts/fundamental-value.md). +Crypto tokens have no reliable [valuation method](../concepts/valuation-model.md). It is not possible to develop a theoretical [value](../concepts/value.md) for a crypto token because there is no demand curve generated by a [use case](../concepts/use-value.md) or any [income or cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) associated with the [security](../concepts/security.md). Crypto tokens have a strictly zero [fundamental value](../concepts/fundamental-value.md) and a [present-value](../concepts/present-value.md) of zero. -Instead the price of a crypto asset swings about wildly depending on the whims of fluctuating demand and market mania of the [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md). Crypto assets are a manifestation of the [greater-fool theory](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) and the price of a crypto asset is defined simply by what people believe the next "fool" will pay for it. +Instead the price of a crypto asset swings about wildly depending on the whims of fluctuating demand, random sentiment and market mania of the larger crypto [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md). Crypto assets are a manifestation of the [greater fool theory](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) and the price of a crypto asset is defined simply by what people believe the next "fool" will pay for it. Models such as "Stock To Flow" have shown no predictive power to explain the [price formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) of assets like [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) on long time scales. These models have no rigorous foundations based on any mainstream economics. -Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar economic structure to crypto tokens. +Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar market structure to crypto tokens but on smaller scales. ## References -* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021] \ No newline at end of file +1. Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2021. ‘Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility’. ArXiv:2106.14204 [Physics, q-Fin], July. http://arxiv.org/abs/2106.14204. +1. Cembalest, Michael. 2022. ‘The Maltese Falcoin: On Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains’. +1. Silverman, Gary. 2021. ‘Crypto Has “No Inherent Worth” But Is Good to Trade, Says Man Group Chief’. Financial Times, 26 July 2021. https://www.ft.com/content/9275baf4-0422-43a1-b8c9-9317882ca874. +1. Stolfi, Jorge. n.d. ‘Bitcoin Is a Ponzi’. Accessed 19 March 2022. https://ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/bitcoin/2020-12-31-bitcoin-ponzi.html. +1. Diehl, Stephen. 2021. ‘The Intellectual Incoherence of Cryptoassets’. 7 November 2021. https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/crypto-absurd.html. +1. Krugman, Paul. 2018a. ‘Bitcoin Is Basically a Ponzi Scheme’. The Seattle Times 30. +1. ———. 2021a. ‘Technobabble, Libertarian Derp and Bitcoin’. The New York Times 21. +1. ———. 2021b. ‘The Brutal Truth About Bitcoin’. The New York Times 21. diff --git a/guide/index.md b/guide/index.md index 373c788..924af3f 100644 --- a/guide/index.md +++ b/guide/index.md @@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ Explore crypto and "web3" in terms of the claims made about it. These subclaims * [Is crypto a means to fund public goods projects?](../claims/is-public-goods.md) * [Is bitcoin mining harmful to the environment?](../claims/environmental-footprint.md) * [Is crypto bringing about the "financialization of everything"?](../claims/is-hyperfinancialization.md) -* [Is crypto a giant misallocation of resources with an enormous opportunity cost?](../claims/is-opportunity-cost.md)0 +* [Is crypto a giant misallocation of resources with an enormous opportunity cost?](../claims/is-opportunity-cost.md) **Financial Innovation** @@ -157,7 +157,7 @@ Understand the deeper theoretical concepts behind the technical and economic cla * [Wash trading](../concepts/wash-trading.md) * [Liquidity pool](../concepts/liquidity-pool.md) * [Assets](../concepts/assets.md) - * [Real lestate](../concepts/real-estate.md) + * [Real estate](../concepts/real-estate.md) * [Gold](../concepts/gold.md) * [Art](../concepts/art.md) * [Commodity](../concepts/commodity.md) diff --git a/site/pages/contribute.md b/site/pages/contribute.md index 4bea197..94eb1aa 100644 --- a/site/pages/contribute.md +++ b/site/pages/contribute.md @@ -3,7 +3,6 @@ This is an open collaborative project. We already have a variety of partners and contributors and we'd love to have more! Here are some of the ways you can get involved: ### If you like research and writing - * Contribute to the [library][], for example by adding articles, papers and research on web3 and background topics. * Write up key concepts and ideas. You can check out our [existing guide][guide] to see which ones could be extended or improved. * See our [concepts-todo](../../meta/concepts-todo.md) task list for open topics.