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# Bitcoin is a means to counter authoritarian regimes
## References
* [@bogost_cryptocurrency_2017]
* [@gerard_salvador_nodate]
* [@analytica_salvador_2021]
* [@gerard_salvadors_nodate]
* [@murray_imf_nodate]
* [@xie_why_2019]
* [@kaiser_looming_2018]
* [@wang_is_2019]
* [@wang_blockchain_2020]

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# Crypto is not decentralized
## References
* [@walch_deconstructing_2019]
* [@sun_centralized_2021]
* [@diehl_decentralized_2021]
* [@schneider_decentralization_2019]
* [@zhang_aesthetics_2019]
* [@soatok_against_2021]

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# Crypto is not a solution for the unbanked
Crypto is not a solution to unbanked, because by its [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) design it [cannot function as a currency](is-bitcoin-currency.md) therefore it is unusable as a scaleable means for purchasing goods and services.
The purpose of retail banking services is to provide stable, reliable and safe means for citizens to transact with money that is safely custodied by a trusted third party with the guarantees of regulation by the government that the party will hold their accounts on their behalf. This includes practices like customer service, deposit insurance, fraud detection, transaction reversal and issuing of payment cards.
[Crypto exchanges](../concepts/crypto-exchange.md) cannot function as banks because the do not custody customer deposits and have no deposit insurance. This pushes unnecessary counterparty risk down to consumers and in the event of fraud, insolvency or market shocks customers may be left with no access to their "deposits". This is an unnecessary risk that is strictly worse than traditional banking products and is a form of [predatory inclusion](../concepts/predatory-inclusion.md) with parallels to predatory lending done during the subprime mortgage crisis.
[Crypto exchanges](../concepts/crypto-exchange.md) cannot function as banks because the do not custody customer deposits and have no deposit insurance. This pushes unnecessary counterparty risk down to consumers and in the event of fraud, insolvency or market shocks customers may be left with no access to their "deposits". This is an unnecessary risk that is strictly worse than traditional banking products and is a form of [predatory inclusion](../concepts/predatory-inclusion.md) with parallels to predatory lending done during the subprime mortgage crisis and alternative money service business like payday loans.
## References
* [@koning_bitcoin_2020]
* [@knauer_what_2019]

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# Bitcoin is the basis for a new gold standard
The neo-metallist claim is that bitcoin can operate as a new asset class which exhibits similar financial properties to [gold](../concepts/gold.md). The strong version of this claim asserts that a new [gold-standard](../concepts/gold-standard.md) can be built on top of bitcoin and that this can form the basis for a market economy.
These claims do not stand up to scrutiny as bitcoin has no consistent track record of being a reliable store of value, it's price movements are extremely volatile and thus is not a reliable place to store value on long time scales. Bitcoin's price behavior is uncorrelated with gold and is largely correlated with the broader stock market making it an unreliable safe haven in times of market volatility since it is directly exposed to the price action of the Nasdaq.
Bitcoin has no historical track record of being a store of value and lacks the millenlia of history that [gold](../concepts/gold.md) as a [commodity](../concepts/commodity.md) has achieved. Unlike gold it also lacks a [use-value](../concepts/use-value.md) for the physical asset which consistently generates demand. Bitcoin also has a upkeep cost in the form of [mining](../concepts/mining.md) which forces the asset to behave like a [negative-sum](../concepts/zero-sum-game.md) [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) asset instead of a store of value.
Even if bitcoin could function as a new gold standard. The [gold-standard](../concepts/gold-standard.md) and the notion of [sound-money](../concepts/sound-money.md) are undesirable foundations for a [currency](../concepts/currency.md) and were subject to extreme shocks and deflationary spirals, and as such were abandoned in the mid 20th century in favour of the [central-banks](../concepts/central-banks.md) and fiat monetary system.
## References
* [@cembalest_maltese_2022]
* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
* [@caferra_bitcoin_2021]
* [@weisenthal_bitcoin_nodate]
* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
* [@bernanke_essays_2004]

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# Proof of Work Mining is Harmful to the Environment
## References
* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2018]
* [@vries_bitcoins_2021]
* [@de_vries_renewable_2019]
* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2020]
* [@badea_economic_2021]
* [@mora_bitcoin_2018]
* [@gallersdorfer_energy_2020]

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# Bitcoin cannot function as a currency
Unlike the namesake of "cryptocurrency" might imply, [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) is not a [currency](../concepts/currency.md). It does not fulfil the economic definition of [money](../concepts/money.md). Instead bitcoin is best understood as a [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) [cryptoasset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) or [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) product.
Since bitcoin is not issued by a sovereign state or [central-banks](../concepts/central-banks.md) there is no central party to manage the [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) spirals that occur in the [price-formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) of the asset. Therefore it is subject to wild and uncontrollable volatility that makes it unsuitable as a *means of exchange*. No amount of technology can fix the volatility problem as it is a function of the economic design of the asset and its fixed supply. This arises out of the political imaginaries of the [neo-metallism](../notes/neo-metallism.md) school and [austrian-economics](../concepts/ideologies/austrian-economics.md) that informed the design of the bitcoin to resemble the historical [gold-standard](../concepts/gold-standard.md) and the conception of heterodox ideas of [sound-money](../concepts/sound-money.md).
@ -8,4 +7,12 @@ As evidenced by real world context there are very few businesses that are willin
Bitcoin cannot form the foundation for an economic system because its volatility makes it unsuitable for issuing debt or loan products without extremely large risk premiums to factor in the price risk of the counterparties on long time scales. This makes common products like mortgages nearly impossible to denominate in bitcoin.
Since bitcoin is [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) it encourages hording instead of spending on [productive enterprises](../concepts/productive-asset.md). This results in mass [market](../concepts/market.md) consolidation and accumulation instead of an environment in which commerce is encouraged. This property makes bitcoin completely antithetical to the entire project of a [currency](../concepts/currency.md) which definitionally exists to be spent.
Since bitcoin is [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) it encourages hording instead of spending on [productive enterprises](../concepts/productive-asset.md). This results in mass [market](../concepts/market.md) consolidation and accumulation instead of an environment in which commerce is encouraged. This property makes bitcoin completely antithetical to the entire project of a [currency](../concepts/currency.md) which definitionally exists to be spent.
## References
* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021-1]
* [@corradi_disenchantment_2018]
* [@nabilou_ignorance_2019]
* [@krugman_brutal_2021]
* [@krugman_technobabble_2021]
* [@varoufakis_what_2021]

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And several notable investors have also described it as a bubble:
* Warren Buffet
* George Soros
* George Soros
## References
* [@blanchard_bubbles_1982]
* [@caferra_bitcoin_2021]
* [@fry_negative_2016]
* [@tonelli_internet_2022]

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# Legality of crypto assets
Crypto assets are unlicensed [security](../concepts/security.md) contracts for unregulated [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) investments. The legality of this depends on jurisdiction.
Crypto assets are unlicensed [security](../concepts/security.md) contracts for unregulated [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) investments. The legality of this depends on jurisdiction.
## References
* [@hacker_crypto-securities_2018]
* [@azgad-tromer_crypto_2018]
* [@ivaniuk_cryptocurrency_2020]
* [@rae_crypto_2019]

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# What is the narrative of crypto assets?
Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
Bitcoin has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
Dogecoin is an example of a crypto asset with no political imaginaries, no [currency](currency.md) narrative, no pretense of [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no narrative economics whatsoever. it is a pure manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md) with an investment thesis rooted purely in [financial nihilism](ideologies/financial-nihilism.md).
## References
* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]
* [@reijers_blockchain_2018]
* [@beltramini_cryptoanarchist_2021]
* [@shiller_narrative_2017]
* [@may_crypto_1992]
* [@curran_wikileaks_2013]
* [@krugman_technobabble_2021]
* [@krugman_strange_2022]

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Investing in crypto assets is statistically guaranteed to lose money for almost all market participants because as investments they have no [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md). This differs drastically from [productive assets](../concepts/productive-asset.md) such as [stocks](../concepts/stock.md) ,[bonds](../concepts/bond.md) and [real-estate](../concepts/real-estate.md).
See [assets](../concepts/assets.md) comparison chart for comparison of crypto assets to conventional investments.
See [assets](../concepts/assets.md) comparison chart for comparison of crypto assets to conventional investments.
## References
* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
* [@fry_negative_2016]
* [@stivers_alchemy_2019]
* [@reijers_blockchain_2018]

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# Cryptoassets are being used to build a new internet
## References
* [@levine_web3_2022]
* [@morozov_web3_2022]
* [@weaver_web3_2021]
* [@soatok_against_2021]
* [@tante_third_2021]
* [@oreilly_why_2021]

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The base economics of crypto assets make them [negative sum](negative-sum.md) which guarantees the amount of loses in the asset class exceed the gains.
Crypto assets are thus a form of predatory finance with negative [expected-return](../concepts/expected-return.md) much like [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) in a rigged casino.
Crypto assets are thus a form of predatory finance with negative [expected-return](../concepts/expected-return.md) much like [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) in a rigged casino.
## References
* [@bindseil_encrypted_2022]
* [@momtaz_entrepreneurial_2020]
* [@kapsis_should_2021]
* [@iansiti_truth_2017]
* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
* [@krugman_bitcoin_2013]
* [@glongloff_bitcoin_nodate]

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# Crypto assets pose a risk to the state
## References
* [@jeong_bitcoin_2013]
* [@orcutt_this_2020]
* [@popper_bitcoin_2020]
* [@corbet_destabilising_2020]
* [@ludlow_crypto_2001]
* [@wolf_libertarian_2019]

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# Crypto assets pose systemic risk to the larger economy
## References
* [@momtaz_entrepreneurial_2020]
* [@zetzsche_ico_2017]

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# Does bitcoin threaten the US dollar as reserve currency
# Does bitcoin threaten the US dollar as reserve currency
## References
*

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# Crypto assets do not have a verifiable valuation model
Crypto tokens have no reliable valuation method. It is not possible to develop a theoretical [value](../concepts/value.md) for a crypto token because there is no demand curve generated by a [use case](../concepts/use-value.md) or any [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) associated with the [security](../concepts/security.md). Crypto tokens thus have a strictly zero [fundamental-value](../concepts/fundamental-value.md).
Instead the price of a crypto asset swings about wildly depending on the whims of fluctuating demand and market mania of the [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md). Crypto assets are a manifestation of the [greater-fool-theory](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) and the price of a crypto asset is defined simply by what people believe the next "fool" will pay for it.
Models such as "Stock To Flow" have shown no predictive power to explain the [price-formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) of assets like [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) on long time scales. These models have no rigorous foundations based on any mainstream economics.
Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar economic structure to crypto tokens.
Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar economic structure to crypto tokens.
## References
* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]

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Since the asset class is [non-productive](../concepts/productive-asset.md) and [negative-sum](negative-sum.md) the crypto scheme entirely depends on attracting new investor inflows based on narratives of "money for nothing" and "easy wealth" that clash with traditional readings of [economics](../concepts/ideologies/keynsian-economics.md). These schemes may also depend on [technosolutionism](../concepts/ideologies/technosolutionism.md) or [libertarianism](../concepts/ideologies/libertarianism.md) to justify bringing more [greater fools](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) into the scheme.
Crypto culture depends heavily on a distortion of language to signify belonging to an ingroup and leans heavily on [thought terminating cliches](../concepts/thought-terminating-cliches.md) to quell dissent or rational discourse.
Crypto culture depends heavily on a distortion of language to signify belonging to an ingroup and leans heavily on [thought terminating cliches](../concepts/thought-terminating-cliches.md) to quell dissent or rational discourse. Within the crypto [subculture](../claims/weird-culture.md) there are several thought-terminating cliches.
* "have fun staying poor" / "hfsp"
* "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you"
* "we're all going to make" / "wagmi"
* "hold on for dear life" / "hodl"
* "the dollar is a ponzi scheme" / everything is a ponzi"
* "now do the dollar"
* "FUD"
* "few understand"
* "bullish"
* "to the moon"
* "diamond hands"
## References
* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]
* [@olson_line_2022]
* [@olson_line_2022]
* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]

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# Is web3 a well-defined term?
Web3 has been [criticised](https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/web3-bullshit.html) as being an intentionally ambiguous buzzword with no precise meaning.
Web3 does not have any universally agreed upon definition.
Web3 has been accused of becoming an intellectual nexus for many internet "thought leaders" to pontificate about grand visions of technical and financial reconfiguration largely detached from any concrete plans or implementations of these ideas. This may give rise to [bubble](bubble.md) detached from any progress on building real companies or technologies.
Web3 has also been described as a means of doing [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) on [securites](security.md) offerings to enrich venture capital firms.
Web3 has been [criticised](https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/web3-bullshit.html) as being an intentionally ambiguous buzzword.
## References
* [https://web3isgoinggreat.com](https://web3isgoinggreat.com)
* [https://web3isgoinggreat.com](https://web3isgoinggreat.com)
* [@diehl_web3_2021]
* [@weaver_web3_2021]
* [@white_its_2022]
* [@morozov_web3_2022]
* [@patterson_internet_2022]
* [@oreilly_why_2021]
* [@tante_third_2021]

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Crypto assets are not [commodities](../concepts/commodity.md) because they have no intrinsic value needed to fulfil any productive economic activity or human need. Their definition of [use-value](../concepts/use-value.md) depends on a circular argument.
Crypto assets may also be a form of [art](../concepts/art.md) under the fuzzy definition of "artistic intent".
Crypto assets may also be a form of [art](../concepts/art.md) under the fuzzy definition of "artistic intent".
## Comparables
Crypto assets have no direct correspondence in traditional markets, but have several pathological equivalences of traditional assets with absurd premises or terms.
* Zero-coupon perpetual [bond](bond.md)
* Unspendable [currency](currency.md)
* [Equity](security.md) with no cash flows or dividends
* [Commodity](commodity.md) with no use value
* Exchange traded [pyramid-scheme](pyramid-scheme.md)
* [Derivative](derivative.md) contract with no underlying
* [Libertarian](ideologies/libertarianism.md) performance [art](art.md)
* Self-organizing [ponzi-scheme](ponzi-scheme.md)
## References
* [@diehl_intellectual_2021]
* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
* [@iansiti_truth_2017]
* [@silverman_crypto_2021]
* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
* [@weisenthal_bitcoin_nodate]
* [@fletcher_currency_2013]

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@ -11,8 +11,8 @@ Art has no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md) under the economic definiti
Art's [intrinsic value](use-value.md) is a debated in philosophy. There is no generally agreed definition of what constitutes art.
Art's value is often tied to its provenance and [sign-value](sign-value.md).
Art's value is often tied to its provenance and [sign value](sign-value.md).
Art may be [artificial-scarcity](artificial-scarcity.md) if created as part of a collection.
Art may be [artificial scarce](artificial-scarcity.md) if created as part of a collection.
The art market has a great amount of [asymmetric-information](asymmetric-information.md) and [market-manipulation](market-manipulation.md).
The art market has a great amount of [asymmetric-information](asymmetric-information.md) and [market manipulation](market-manipulation.md).

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# Artificial Demand

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# Artificial Scarcity
The abstract notion of creating an asset whose supply is artificially determined and set by the issuer instead of by its physicality or underlying whose demand curve would be generated by a [use value](use-value.md) or [income cashflows](income-cashflows.md).
Products like [crypto asset](cryptoasset.md), [NFTs](nft.md) and sometimes [art](art.md) are artificially scarce.

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# Bank Run

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# Cartel
An economic cartel use a non-public agreement to restrict the supply or fix the price of an asset. A cartel is a formal type of [market-manipulation](market-manipulation.md). Cartels are considered to be against the public interest because of the potential [asymmetric-information](asymmetric-information.md) to reduce trust in [markets](market.md).
Crypto exchanges operators act as economic cartel which can distort [price formation](price-formation.md). See [stablecoin](stablecoin.md).

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# Central Banks
A financial institution that manages the [currency](currency.md) and monetary supply of a nation state.
The mandate of central banks is often to control domestic employment and maintain price stability of a national currency.

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# Commodity
An asset that is used for its [use value](use-value.md) as an input to an economic process.
## Examples
* Petroleum
* Wheat
* Pork

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# Consensus Algorithm
A mechanism by which data is synchronised across computer and kept in a consistent state. An integral part of a [blockchain](blockchain.md) network.
Many consensus algorithms use tokens rewards as an economic incentive for partipants to maintain servers which [mine](mining.md), [stake](staking.md) or participate in the consensus algorithm..

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# Crypto Exchanges
A crypto exchange is a corporate entity that acts as an intermediary between people to exchange [currency](currency.md) for [crypto assets](cryptoasset.md)
Crypto exchanes are not regulated as market makers or brokers, but instead as [money services business](money-services-business.md) which does regulate [order book](order-book.md) making or protect consumers against [market manipulation](market-manipulation.md).
Crypto exchanes are not regulated as [market makers](market-maker.md) or [brokers](broker.md), but instead as [money services business](money-services-business.md) which does regulate [order book](order-book.md) making or protect consumers against [market manipulation](market-manipulation.md).
Many crypto exchanges offer their own [stablecoin](stablecoin.md) whose reserves may be comingled with customer funds.
See [market manipulation](market-manipulation.md) and [economic cartel](cartel.md).
See also [market manipulation](market-manipulation.md) and [economic cartel](cartel.md).
## Jurisdictions

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# Crypto Asset
A digital asset that is traded on a [blockchain](blockchain.md).
Crypto assets have no [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) and are a manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md).
## Examples
* [Bitcoin](bitcoin.md)
* [Ethereum](ethereum.md)
* [Dogecoin](dogecoin.md)
## Comparables
Crypto assets have no direct correspondence in traditional markets, but have several pathological equivalences of traditional assets with absurd premises or terms.
* Zero-coupon perpetual [bond](bond.md)
* Unspendable [currency](currency.md)
* [Equity](security.md) with no cash flows or dividends
* [Commodity](commodity.md) with no use value
* Exchange traded [pyramid-scheme](pyramid-scheme.md)
* [Derivative](derivative.md) contract with no underlying
* [Libertarian](ideologies/libertarianism.md) performance [art](art.md)
* Self-organizing [ponzi-scheme](ponzi-scheme.md)
* [Dogecoin](dogecoin.md)

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# Currency Peg
A [currency](currency.md) peg is a policy in which an asset is set to a specific fixed exchange rate for its currency with a foreign currency or basket of currencies.

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# Currency
A physical or digital representation of [money](money.md).

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# Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
Defi is a broad category of [smart-contracts](smart-contracts.md) which loosely correspond to digital contracts running on a [blockchain](blockchain.md) which allow users to create collateralized loans out of [stablecoin](stablecoin.md) and which have side payouts in so-called "[governance tokens](governance-token.md)".
DeFi generally refers to a collection of services which offer lending products offered by non-banks and which exist outside the regulatory perimeter as a form [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and to fund margin trading activities to [speculaate](speculation.md) on [crypto assets](cryptoasset.md).
See also [yield-farming](yield-farming.md), [amm](amm.md), [dex](dex.md).
See also [yield farming](yield-farming.md), [AMM](amm.md), [DEX](dex.md).

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# Deposit Insurance
Insurance a bank holds against its [deposit](deposit.md) to protect depositors from losses by insolvent banks. Instead of being mutualized deposits are backed by a [central banks](central-banks.md).
See also [bank run](bank-run.md).

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# Deposit
Money that held on behalf of a client of a [bank](bank.md).

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# Derivative
A derivative is a type of financial contract whose value is dependent on an underlying asset, group of assets, or benchmark.
Underlying assets for derivatives are most often stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, and market indexes. The value of the contract itself depend on changes in the prices of the underlying asset.

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# DEX = Decentralized EXchange
Order-book based but p2p (i.e. without market makers). This contrasts with [[amm]] (automated market makers) who don't have an order book.
# Decentralized Exchange
Order-book based but peer-to-peer transactions (i.e. without market makers). This contrasts with [AMM](AMM.md) (automated market makers) who don't have an order book.
## Limitations
From https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/what-is-uniswap-and-how-does-it-work
> Due to the inherent limitations of [blockchain](https://academy.binance.com/en/articles/what-is-blockchain-technology-a-comprehensive-guide-for-beginners) technology, it has been a challenge to build DEXes that meaningfully compete with their centralized counterparts. Most DEXes could improve both in terms of performance and user experience.
> Due to the inherent limitations of [blockchain](blockchain.md) technology, it has been a challenge to build DEXes that meaningfully compete with their centralized counterparts. Most DEXes could improve both in terms of performance and user experience.

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The dollar is [inflationary](inflationary.md).
The paper form of the dollar is a [bearer instrument](bearer-instrument.md).
The dollar has no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md).
The dollar has no [use value](use-value.md).

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Ethereum is a [security](security.md).
Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private-money](private-money.md).
Ethereum is based on the [consensus algorithm](consensus-algorithm.md) known as Proof of Work [mining](mining.md).

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# Gold Standard
A monetary standard for a [currency](currency.md) based on precious metal [commodities](commodity.md), espoused as [sound money](sound-money.md) in [Austrian economics](ideologies/austrian-economics.md).
## Criticisms

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# High Control Group
A social group or movement in which the members are strongly influenced by the suggestions of a group leader or group as a whole and in which dissent or reflection on the ideology are discouraged. Often incorporates a narrative about an ingroup and outgroup.
This type of group will often adopt a disfigurement of language and [thought-terminating-cliches](thought-terminating-cliches.md) in order to communicate within the ingroup.s

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# Howey Test
A legal test which defines whether an investment contract is designed as a [security](security.md) under United States law.
1. Investment of money

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# Initial Coin Offerings
Initial coin offerings are proxy [equity](security.md) fundraising structure that allows entrepeneurs to raise [crypto assets](cryptoasset.md) in a common enterprise outside of existing securities regulation. Initial coin offerings are an example of [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) of [security](security.md) regulation.
Initial coin offerings are illegal in the United States.
## Citations
## References
* [@kharif_half_2018]
* [@zetzsche_ico_2017]

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# Financial Accelerationism
## References

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* Friedrich Hayek
* Saifedean Ammous
## Citations
## References
* Friedrich, Carl J. "The Road to Serfdom." (1945): 575-579.
* [@ammous_bitcoin_2018]

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# Capitalism
## References

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# Cryptoanarchism
## References

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# Financial Nihilism
A philosophy on investing and markets in which [value](../value.md) does not exist or is inherently unknowable. The claims of this ideology stems from an underlying belief that [markets](../market.md) have no purpose and cannot or does not exist to do [price formation](../price-formation.md) on [assets](../assets.md) because of a belief that[capitalism](capitalism.md) does not work.
This is a belief system held by some who participate in [meme stock](../meme-stock.md) and [meme coin](../memecoin.md) projects.
This is a belief system held by some who participate in [meme stock](../meme-stock.md) and [meme coin](../memecoin.md) projects.
## References

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# Inevitablism
# Inevitablism
## References

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# Keynsian Economics
## References

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# Libertariansm
A political ideology that aims to minimize the role of government in the lives of citizens and in the [market](../market.md). Libertarians generally believe in the minimisation of [public goods](../public-goods-problem.md) and instead replace them with free-market driven solutions. Libertarianism is often correlated with ideas of tax minimization or avoidance which are viewed as form of "plunder" by the state.
Libertarians believe in a minimal nation state whose role exists to provide for public defense, the rule of law, and to enforce civil contract law.
Libertarians believe in a minimal nation state whose role exists to provide for public defense, the rule of law, and to enforce civil contract law.
## References

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# Market Fundamentalism
The belief that [market](../market.md) are inevitable and desirable feature of [capitalism](capitalism.md) and that efficient and transparent [market making](../market-maker.md) enables capital formation and general public prosperity.
Often coincides with the belief that [market manipulation](../market-manipulation.md), [asymmetric information](../asymmetric-information.md), and [cartels](../cartel.md) in markets is undesirable because these phenomenon destroy trust in markets and inhibit [price formation](../price-formation.md).
Often coincides with the belief that [market manipulation](../market-manipulation.md), [asymmetric information](../asymmetric-information.md), and [cartels](../cartel.md) in markets is undesirable because these phenomenon destroy trust in markets and inhibit [price formation](../price-formation.md).
## References

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See: [[commodity-fetishism]]
## References

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# Post-state Technocracy
The political ideology that [blockchain](../blockchain.md) and [cryptoasset](../cryptoasset.md) are a tool to dismantle nation states and install a form of anarchism in which governance and institutions are replaced with technology and a new global transnational plutocracy of those holding crypto assets.
See also [technosolutionism](technosolutionism.md) and [libertarianism](libertarianism.md).
See also [technosolutionism](technosolutionism.md) and [libertarianism](libertarianism.md).
## References

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# Technocollectivism
A loose set of political or organisational ideologies that [blockchain](../blockchain.md), [crypto assets](../cryptoasset.md) and [DAOs](../dao.md) can be used to enable new forms of organisations in which capital formation can occur outside of existing power structures. These include a variety of experiments in social choice theory, futarchy and digital cooperatives.
See also [technosolutionism](technosolutionism.md).
See also [technosolutionism](technosolutionism.md).
## References

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Technolibertarianism is an extension of [libertarianism](libertarianism.md) with the belief that technology is a liberatory force to ensure civil liberties, encourage the operation of free markets without government intervention and avoid over-regulation.
Technolibertarianism is particularly aligned with the use of cryptography, [cryptoasset](../cryptoasset.md) and [censorship-resistence](../censorship-resistence.md) tools to protect against what they see as government overreach into
the financial lives of citizens. The ideology is predicated on a distrust of institutions and command-and-control structures, and a preference for technical solutions with philosophical appeals to [decentralization](../decentralization.md).
the financial lives of citizens. The ideology is predicated on a distrust of institutions and command-and-control structures, and a preference for technical solutions with philosophical appeals to [decentralization](../decentralization.md).
## References

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# Technosolutionism
## References

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@ -4,6 +4,15 @@ The technical process of confirming transactions in a [blockchain](blockchain.md
Mining is an energy intensive process with a large environmental footprint.
## References
* [@kufeoglu_bitcoin_2019]
* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2018]
* [@vries_bitcoins_2021]
* [@de_vries_renewable_2019]
* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2021]
* [@badea_economic_2021]
* [@nanez_alonso_cryptocurrency_2021]
* [@kufeoglu_bitcoin_2019]
* [@mora_bitcoin_2018]
* [@vries_bitcoins_2021]
* [@vries_bitcoins_2020]
* [@gallersdorfer_energy_2020]
* [@goodkind_cryptodamages_2020]
* [@peplow_bitcoin_2019]

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# Narrative Economics
Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
Bitcoin has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
Dogecoin is an example of a crypto asset with no political imaginaries, no [currency](currency.md) narrative, no pretense of [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no narrative economics whatsoever. it is a pure manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md) with an investment thesis rooted purely in [financial nihilism](ideologies/financial-nihilism.md).
# Narrative Economics

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* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
* [@hutchison_postmodern_2012]
* [@bartoletti_dissecting_2020]
See: [Investor.gov Ponzi Scheme](https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/types-fraud/ponzi-scheme)
* [Investor.gov Ponzi Scheme](https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/types-fraud/ponzi-scheme)

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# Price Formation
Price formation is an information-gathering process which ensures that market participants know enough about the prices of the assets being traded in the market, so that they can make rational decisions about the buying and selling of goods and services.
Price formation is an information-gathering process which ensures that market participants know enough about the prices of the [assets](assets.md) being traded in the [market](market.md), so that they can make rational decisions about the buying and selling of goods and services.

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# Pyramid Scheme
A pyramid scheme is a fraudulent investment based on recruiting an ever-increasing number of "investors" or [greater fools](greater-fool-theory.md) into the scheme. The initial promoters recruit investors, who in turn recruit more investors, and so on.
## References
See [multilevel marketing scheme](mlm.md).
## References
* [Invesator.gov Pyramid Scheme](https://www.investor.gov/protect-your-investments/fraud/types-fraud/pyramid-schemes)

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# Real Estate
Real estate is physical land or property and the buildings on it.
## Properties
Real estate has a [use value](use-value.md).
Real estate may have [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) through generating rent or agriculture.
Real estate is a [productive](productive-asset.md) investment.

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# Securites
A legal framework in which counterparties to a country are given time-varying rights to [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) according to a contractual agreement. The legal test for a product being a security is in-part defined by the [Howey Test](howey-test.md).
A legal framework in which counterparties to a contract are given time-varying rights to [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) according to a contractual agreement. The legal test for a product being a security is in-part defined by the [Howey Test](howey-test.md).
## Examples

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# Shadow Bank
A shadow banking system refers to a network of unregulated financial intermediaries that facilitate the creation of credit across the global financial system outside of the normal [banking](bank.md) system.
See also [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md).

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# Speculation
Speculation is the taking of a position on an asset with the hope that it will become more valuable on a short time horizon. Speculation plays a part in [price-formation](price-formation.md).
Some peculators may care little for the [fundamental-value](fundamental-value.md) of the asset and instead focus purely on short-term price movements, public sentiment and momentum.
Some speculators may care little for the [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md) of the asset and instead focus purely on short-term price movements, public sentiment and momentum.

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@ -3,8 +3,8 @@ A type of [security](security.md) which grants buyers access to [income-cashflow
Stocks are valued by the [market](market.md) as a combination of three factors which inform price formation:
1. Momentum
2. Discounted future cash flows
1. Discounted future cash flows
2. Momentum
3. Public sentiment
Stocks return [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) generated by the enterprise to shareholders via three processes:

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# Survivorship Bias

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# Thought Terminating Cliche
A acronym or saying that is used within a [high control group](high-control-group.md) to quell dissent or discourage rational inquiry.
## Examples
Within the crypto [subculture](../claims/weird-culture.md) there are several thought-terminating cliches.
* "have fun staying poor" / "hfsp"
* "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you"
* "we're all going to make" / "wagmi"
* "hold on for dear life" / "hodl"
* "the dollar is a ponzi scheme" / everything is a ponzi"
* "now do the dollar"
* "FUD"
* "few understand"
* "bullish"
* "to the moon"
* "diamond hands"
A acronym or saying that is used within a [high control group](high-control-group.md) to quell dissent or discourage rational inquiry.

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# Use Value
*Use value* or *intrinsic value* is a feature of an asset which can satisfy some human requirement, want or need, or which serves a useful purpose.
For example the use value of wheat is the ability to produce flour and bread which can provide sustenance and satisfy human hunger and need for sustenance.

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# Valuation Model
A mathematical model to calculate the [fundamental-value](fundamental-value.md) of a [security](security.md).
A mathematical model to calculate the [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md) of a [security](security.md). The field of quantitative finance concerns itself with the pricing and optimal allocation of securities contracts in terms of their [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) and the risks associated with the assets.

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# Value
Value is a subjective concept which refers to the process by which humans measure the worth of physical goods, services or ideas in terms of a fitness function which assigns subjective or objective measure to the referent.
There are many different types of value definitions.
There are many different types of value definitions, but is not exhaustive.
* [Market value](market-value.md)
* [Fundamental value](fundamental-value.md)

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# Zero Sum Game
An economic game in which involves two sides and where the result is an advantage for one side and a loss for the other. The sum of all gains and losses across all players sums to zero.
Investing in crypto tokens is necessarily a zero sum games before considering the cost of transactions and network maintenance.

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@ -45,21 +45,37 @@ Explore crypto and "web3" in terms of the claims made about it. These subclaims
* [Are crypto assets a systemic risk to the economy?](../claims/systemic-risk.md)
* [Is bitcoin the basis for a new gold standard?](../claims/digital-gold.md)
* [Are crypto assets a bubble?](../claims/is-bubble.md)
* Are crypto assets a form of gambling?
* Are crypto tokens an inflation hedge?
* Is private money a desirable system?
**Financial Inclusion**
**Better Society / Financial Inclusion**
* [Is crypto a solution for the unbanked?](/claims/crypto-unbanked.md)
* What consumer protections exist for crypto tokens?
* Is crypto investing a form of predatory inclusion?
* Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services?
* [What is the narrative economics of crypto assets?](../claims/narrative-economics.md)
* [Are crypto assets legal?](/claims/legality.md)
* [Are crypto tokens a predatory investment?](../claims/predatory-investments.md)
* [Are crypto tokens a negative-sum investment?](/claims/negative-sum.md)
* Why do people invest in crypto tokens?
* Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services?
* [Why does crypto have such a weird subculture?](/claims/weird-culture.md)
**Financial Liberty**
* Is a unregulated transnational payment rail even desirable?
* Are crypto tokens a hedge against the "debasement" of the dollar?
* [Are crypto tokens a means to counter authoritarianism?](../claims/authoritarianism.md)
* I want to raise money for my non-profit or public goods project?
* Can I do a crowdfunded equity raise for my company?
**Solving Public Goods Problems**
* Is crypto a means to fund public goods projects?
* [Is bitcoin mining harmful to the environment?](../claims/environmental-footprint.md)
* Is crypto bringing about the "financialization of everything"?
* Is crypto a giant misallocation of resources with an enormous opportunity cost?
**Financial Innovation**
@ -71,21 +87,18 @@ Explore crypto and "web3" in terms of the claims made about it. These subclaims
**Creative Destruction**
* Is web3 a means to dismantle the American tech hegemony?
* Is web3 a means to rebuild the global financial system?
* Are crypto tokens a means to accelerate the collapse of capitalism?
**International Politics**
* [What is the narrative economics of crypto assets?](../claims/narrative-economics.md)
* [Are crypto tokens a means to counter authoritarianism?](../claims/authoritarianism.md)
***
## Contextual
Understand crypto and "web3" in terms of recent news events and interviews.
Understand crypto and "web3" in terms of recent news events and interviews and external resources.
* [Video Interviews](/guide/interviews)
* [Recent News Stories](/notes/recent-events.md)
* [Commentary on 'Line Goes Up'](../notes/olson-2022-line-go-up.md)
***

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@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ Second Pass
- [ ] [private-money](../concepts/private-money.md)
- [ ] [amm](../concepts/amm.md)
- [ ] [artificial-scarcity](../concepts/artificial-scarcity.md)
- [x] [artificial-scarcity](../concepts/artificial-scarcity.md)
- [ ] [assets](../concepts/assets.md)
- [ ] [bretton-woods](../concepts/bretton-woods.md)
- [ ] [broker](../concepts/broker.md)
@ -43,15 +43,15 @@ Second Pass
- [ ] [commodity](../concepts/commodity.md)
- [ ] [counterparty-risk](../concepts/counterparty-risk.md)
- [ ] [cross-bridges](../concepts/cross-bridges.md)
- [ ] [deposit](../concepts/deposit.md)
- [ ] [deposit-insurance](../concepts/deposit-insurance.md)
- [x] [deposit](../concepts/deposit.md)
- [x] [deposit-insurance](../concepts/deposit-insurance.md)
- [ ] [dex](../concepts/dex.md)
- [x] [exit-scam](../concepts/exit-scam.md)
- [ ] [free-rider-problem](../concepts/free-rider-problem.md)
- [ ] [bank](../concepts/bank.md)
- [x] [bank](../concepts/bank.md)
- [ ] [illicit-financing](../concepts/illicit-financing.md)
- [ ] [mixer](../concepts/mixer.md)
- [ ] [mining](../concepts/mining.md)
- [x] [mixer](../concepts/mixer.md)
- [x] [mining](../concepts/mining.md)
- [ ] [money-services-business](../concepts/money-services-business.md)
- [ ] [mutualization](../concepts/mutualization.md)
- [ ] [narrative-economics](../concepts/narrative-economics.md)
@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ Second Pass
- [ ] [staking](../concepts/staking.md)
- [ ] [systemic-risk](../concepts/systemic-risk.md)
- [ ] [yield-farming](../concepts/yield-farming.md)
- [ ] [stablecoin](../concepts/stablecoin.md)
- [x] [stablecoin](../concepts/stablecoin.md)
- [ ] [capital-formation](../concepts/capital-formation.md)
- [ ] [commercial-paper](../concepts/commercial-paper.md)
- [x] [reserve-currency](../concepts/reserve-currency.md)
@ -83,13 +83,13 @@ Claims
- [ ] [environmental-footprint](../claims/environmental-footprint.md)
- [x] [is-bubble](../claims/is-bubble.md)
- [ ] [narrative-economics](../concepts/narrative-economics.md)
- [ ] [digital-gold](../claims/digital-gold.md)
- [x] [digital-gold](../claims/digital-gold.md)
- [ ] [new-internet](../claims/new-internet.md)
- [ ] [risk-to-state](../claims/risk-to-state.md)
- [ ] [systemic-risk](../concepts/systemic-risk.md)
- [ ] [threaten-dollar](../claims/threaten-dollar.md)
- [ ] [valuation-model](../concepts/valuation-model.md)
- [ ] [what-type-of-asset](../claims/what-type-of-asset.md)
- [x] [valuation-model](../concepts/valuation-model.md)
- [x] [what-type-of-asset](../claims/what-type-of-asset.md)
Ideologies

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@ -13,7 +13,7 @@ In episode #3 of our ongoing deep dive into web3 and crypto, we explore the natu
## What are securities?
* A collective legal fiction that pools money and mediates cash flows between people according to an agreed-upon framework.
* A [security](../concepts/security.md) is a collective legal fiction that pools money and mediates [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) between people according to an agreed-upon framework.
* “A joint-stock company is a business entity in which shares of the company's stock can be bought and sold by shareholders. Each shareholder owns company stock in proportion, evidenced by their shares (certificates of ownership). Shareholders are able to transfer their shares to others without any effects to the continued existence of the company.”
* An idea that goes all the way back to the 12th century, where medieval peasants would buy shares in a common enterprise of mills that would grind wheat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bazacle_Milling_Company
* Gave rise to a modern framework of laws that cover financial products from debt instruments, bonds, equities, and derivatives. The legal foundation on which all of market capitalism is built.
@ -26,13 +26,13 @@ In episode #3 of our ongoing deep dive into web3 and crypto, we explore the natu
### Pro
* Landmark case from 1946, SEC vs W. J. Howey Co. set the precedent for determining what is a securities contract.
* Landmark case from 1946, SEC vs W. J. Howey Co. set the [Howey Test](../concepts/howey-test.md) precedent for determining what is a securities contract.
* (1) an investment of money, (2) in a common enterprise, (3) with the expectation of profit and (4) to be derived from the efforts of others.
* Many things can be sold as securities. (stocks, chinchillas, whiskey barrels, orange trees). Its very context dependent.
* **If we accept the premise that crypto tokens arent currencies, then tokens are clearly investments made with the expectation of profit. Are crypto assets unregistered securities?**
* Crypto tokens currently exist partially outside the US securities framework.
* The SEC has taken action against some Initial Coin Offerings, selling debt instruments to retail, against outright Ponzi schemes and firms acting as bank-like entities. **TODO: Link examples**
* District courts have set precedent in many investment fraud cases that have consistently indicated token sales to US persons meet Howey test and Dodd-Frank criterion of securities sales, even if done internationally (i.e from Switzerland). If you sell to US persons it becomes a security under US law.
* District courts have set precedent in many investment fraud cases that have consistently indicated token sales to US persons meet [Howey Test](../concepts/howey-test.md) and Dodd-Frank criterion of securities sales, even if done internationally (i.e from Switzerland). If you sell to US persons it becomes a security under US law.
* **A federal case or executive order that sets precedent nationally has yet not been heard in the courts.**
* Thousands of companies and projects' success or failure rests on token sales not being regulated as securities. If they are regulated as securities it is quite possible the entire market implodes.
* Sale of securities depends who you are selling to, and what kind of risk and return are presented in the prospectus.
@ -45,7 +45,7 @@ In episode #3 of our ongoing deep dive into web3 and crypto, we explore the natu
* Many policymakers on both sides of the aisle debate whether or not the accreditation laws are too restrictive and shut the public out of high-risk-high-return investments that only wealthy people have access to.
* On the right, then individual choice is a paramount, the government shouldnt dictate risk-taking in markets. Just “evolution” and the natural state of being.
* **On the left, Pikketys analysis that wealth generated from capital grows faster than economic output and patrimonial capitalism leads to distortions of markets and inequality**.
* It is very easy to create an equity crowdfunding and cap table structure on top of crypto platforms like Ethereum.
* It is very easy to create an equity crowdfunding and cap table structure on top of crypto platforms like [ethereum](../concepts/ethereum.md).
* Individuals can do it anonymously and raise billions of dollar equivalents in seed capital for ventures that are very early. Dont need to involve the SEC, government or lawyers at all.
* Previously this kind of access was gated to US persons with connections and access to funds, connections and access to capital.
* This is a liberatory and egalitarian force that democratizes company formation that lowers barriers and allows all types of common enterprises that were previously prohibited by law.
@ -89,4 +89,13 @@ In episode #3 of our ongoing deep dive into web3 and crypto, we explore the natu
* Can the courts scale to handle millions of new investment fraud cases every year?
* Is extreme levels of fraud simply the price we pay for a more dynamic economy or does this all lead to ruin like it has in the past?
* Evolution and capitalism metaphor: extremophiles.
* **What is the right interplay between investment risk and the rule of law? Is creative destruction by any extra-legal means a positive force in the world?**
* **What is the right interplay between investment risk and the rule of law? Is creative destruction by any extra-legal means a positive force in the world?**
# Topics
* [security](../concepts/security.md)
* [howey-test](../concepts/howey-test.md)
* [productive-asset](../concepts/productive-asset.md)
* [ico](../concepts/ico.md)
## References

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[market-fundamentalism](../concepts/ideologies/market-fundamentalism.md)
## Summary
**Who holds this position?**
- Day-trader in the pub, WallStreetBets demographic.
- [https://www.ft.com/content/162839aa-0437-478b-a4d4-4a8d7ab71458](https://www.ft.com/content/162839aa-0437-478b-a4d4-4a8d7ab71458)
- “Ill either be rich, or wrong.” This is how Sam, a 29-year-old cryptocurrency enthusiast I interviewed on this weeks Money Clinic podcast, summarized his strategy for investing the last £2,000 of his savings in a hugely volatile and unregulated asset class. Claiming that hes not a natural risk taker, Sam has never set foot inside a casino or put money on a horse. “To me, that seems stupid, like youre throwing money away.” He has never considered investing in stocks and shares. Being self-employed, hes never paid into a pension or thought about setting up a self-invested personal pension (Sipp). “No ones ever given me that kind of information,” he says. So why is he prepared to risk his spare cash betting on crypto? Sam found out his younger brother had turned a £3,000 investment into £30,000 within four years — money he now intends to use as a property deposit. “I was very surprised and it made me feel a bit stupid...why arent I doing this?”
- Low bets, with tiny but possible asymmetric returns. A regressive tax or distributed lottery.
- Quants and Hedge funds
- Jane Street / DE Shaw
- Alameda Research / Jump Crypto / DRW Cumberland
- Goldman Sachs / Credit Suisse
- Mann Group - [https://www.ft.com/content/9275baf4-0422-43a1-b8c9-9317882ca874](https://www.ft.com/content/9275baf4-0422-43a1-b8c9-9317882ca874)
- “If you look at cryptocurrencies as a whole, it is a pure trading instrument. There is no inherent worth in it whatsoever. It is a tulip bulb,” Ellis said, referring to the flower that became the focus of a 17th-century Dutch financial mania.
- Minnows and the sharks …
- The sharks *love* the minnows
**Context: why is this an interesting group and position to examine?**
- Likely represents a majority of interest and activity in crypto (and even DAOs)
- We hear from the day-trader in the pub up the wall street trader
- Generally not brought up explicitly so much in the crypto / web3 discussion (for obvious reasons: it is not as substantive or attractive position to espouse publicly)
- The political imaginaries arent there - “I just want to make money”, “Greed is good”
- Consequences and externalities be damned
- Hyper-capitalist
- “Life is nothing but a competition to be the criminal rather than the victim.”
- However, may actually account for a good portion of the interest and even political/social support for this area
- Legitimizing segment esp for regulators (hey even goldman sachs or JP Morgan are involved, this must be a legitimate area / industry)
**Essense of the position**
- Friedman Doctrine [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedman_doctrine) applied to unregulated markets. Optimize for shareholder value.
- Now we get to redefine shareholder to mean token holder, without any regulatory baggage from traditional markets.
- Line must go up at any cost.
- Markets have no moral quality.
- They are a mechanism of like evolution that selects for fitness and success
- If Im allowed to trade products that are massively asymmetric and disadvantage retail traders then I can and I will => it will eliminate those inefficient players (it punishes unfitness and rewards fitness)
- Im just participating in price discovery of a new asset class.
- Even if “I know its a greater fool asset [let's clarify this is proper econ terminology], if I have access to non-public information and more capital I can (and should) use it and exit before the other fools.”
- Some people legitimately did make money trading on South Sea Bubble, Dotcom Bubble, Tulip Mania
- These booms and busts are a natural part of market cycles
- Crypto products are risk assets that have no fundamentals, but thats not necessarily a problem because you can make money on trading them.
- There other financial products (ETNs - exchange traded notes, volatility swaps) many of which are intrinsically negative-sum and high-risk as well, these are allowed in markets … so why shouldnt crypto be.
- [Credit Suisse defends controversial financial product at the center of the market turmoil](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/07/credit-suisse-defends-controversial-xiv-etn-amid-market-turmoil.html)
- If the market allows manipulation (pump and dumps, insider trading, wash trading) this is public knowledge and it is reflected in the price formation of the assets. There is no non-public disclosure about the risks of these assets, everyone is going in with their eyes open that this is the wild west.
- Investment Hypothesis  1: Tokens are an investment product that exists to secure compute cycles for people to run computation on a globally distributed state machine using the market to create game theoretic incentive to run others computations as a “public good”. That state machine has an operating cost and that creates synthetic demand for people who need to buy it, at any cost, to run computation on the chain.
- Investment Hypothesis 2: We can treat crypto tokens as a synthetic hedge against the entire class of assets with fundamentals. They're a place to park money in times of loose monetary policy to chase yield when there's nothing else left to buy, because other funds circularly trade this thesis.
- Institutional investors should be able to leverage their AUM to take high-risk positions just like they are in other private markets. If retail wants to participate with the “sharks” then its on them to understand the risks not on the people theyre trading against. The fiduciary mandate of hedge funds is to take positions on behalf of their LPs in beta uncorrelated positions.
**Critique**
- Everything that has been illegal for 80y is suddenly allowed. Exchanges are basically like bucket shops from the 1920s. Everything is allowed.
- Wash-trading
- Front-running
- Painting the tape
- Insider trading
- Arbitrarily halting trading
- Price manipulation and order book tampering
- Pump and dumps
- Canceling orders arbitrarily
- Refusing cash withdrawals
- Offering 125x leverage on options
- Clearing house and in-house prop trading are in the same room
- Exchanges have their own proprietary trading arm
- Trading against their own clients
- Equity markets (after many years) separate brokers, clearing house and market makers for very good reasons. Markets work best when we have abundant public information and minimize fraud and collusion in price formation.
- We have no idea how much leverage is baked into the entire market, induced by products like unbaked stablecoins which can seemingly produce limitless amounts of unsecured debt products on demand.
- [Tether minted most USDT to just 2 firms — Alameda and Cumberland](https://protos.com/tether-minted-usdt-stablecoin-crypto-two-alameda-cumberland/)
- What does that lead to?
- Inequality (money flows to the sharks)
- Distrust and cynicism (and im on my own)
- Both wider in society: im out for myself, other people are just out for themselves. Dishonesty and exploitation are a normal part of (capitalist) society
- Subversive opportunism
- Just because you can trade something doesn't mean its good for the world (opium trade, slave trade, asbestos)
- Moral hazard - public is incentivized to take on disproportionate risk expecting a bailout
- When it goes wrong the state and its institutions and leaders are blamed further corroding trust in our collective capabilities when we most need them (climate change etc)
- In markets - assuming that markets esp financial markets have some value then undermining faith in them is problematic. Cf the 1920s/1930s which led to much of the market regulations we have today
- You may think this is a good if you are anarchist-nihilist
- A deformation of character: we become enslaved to the idea of getting rich quick (cf Salgado). Capitalist alienation
- Terribly pathological form of capitalism that doesn't result in price formation on collective enterprise, goods or services. Funds are betting on financial fantasy castles in the sky detached from any day to day reality of human life.
- What is the purpose of public markets then?
- What type of asset is a crypto token? How do we value it? Is there a comparable asset?
- Zero-coupon perpetual bond?
- Currency you wouldnt want to spend?
- Equity with no cash flows or dividends?
- [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_sky_law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_sky_law)
- Commodity with no use value?
- Exchange traded pyramid schemes?
- Derivative contract with no underlying?
- Libertarian performance art split into 21 million pieces?
- [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_Bonds](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_Bonds)
- If we value it as a “block box” financial product (ala Nassim Taleb) we find its present value can only be zero.
- [https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf](https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf)
- A captive market for “fictitious commodities” (Marxist term) that is controlled by opaque unregulated market making and an economic cartel.
- This is great if youre inside the cartel. Not so great if you arent.
- Wealth transfer from public to insiders is all nearly guaranteed by the information asymmetry.
## Concepts Covered
* [artificial-scarcity](../concepts/artificial-scarcity.md)

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[digital-gold](../claims/digital-gold.md)
## Episode Notes
- Gold has a historical precedent as money across cultures going back millenia.
- Multiple cultures have independently used it as currency.
- Its metallurgical properties make it uniquely suited amongst the elements on the periodic table.
- Its relative abundance (although not excessive abundance) and distribution across the Earths crust make it rare enough to horde and access even for bronze age cultures.
- It is stable at room temperature, doesnt oxidize , easily detectable because of its glimmer and unique aesthetics, it is malleable without advanced smelting technology and is uniquely distinguishable from other metals.
- It is probably the ONLY element on the periodic table that has all of these unique characteristics that could even be used for monetary purposes.
- There is only a finite amount of it produced in supernova events and nuclear reactions, it is thus impossible to counterfeit or “debase” the supply.
- Advanced economies began stockpiling gold in government reserves and issuing notes against that float in redemption in gold by a government treasury.
- Gold theoretically acts as a universal numeraire across economic systems allowing interchange and commerce. It is a fixed “measuring sticking” for economic value that cannot be changed.
- It satisfies the definition of money, it can theoretically function as a unit of account, medium of exchange, and store of value. The only issue is that it incurs storage costs and is not easily transported because of its density and physicality.
- The Austrian school of economics regards gold as a (possibly only) example of “sound money” because it is immune to government intervention in the supply, effectively by the laws of physics. It cannot be “debased” or changed. (Aside: Of course, governments have found ways to "debase" gold-based currencies (usually by altering the coinage in various ways).
- Fiat money allows for both variable supply and demand with the goal of maintaining price stability and targeting a desired inflation amount which encourages productive enterprise. Historically, going all the way back to the invention of banking in Florence, there have been examples of mismanaged fiat currencies which have not managed either their supply or demand properly and spun into either deflationary or inflationary spirals and the public lost trust in the notes and their value become illusory.
- The Austrians assert that government intervention in “business cycles” is unnatural because free market forces will naturally correct supply and demand imbalances and that recessions and manias are both desirable and natural events.
- The hard monetarist perspective views any intervention in the supply dynamics of currencies as inevitably leading to inflation which is harmful to the free market and commerce.
- Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”
- Centralized intervention in the markets turns economic influence into political power and financial rewards based on non-public information. This in turn is worse than centrally planned economies as it doesnt allow for accurate price formation of assets and ultimately leads society into a loss of freedom, tyranny and a state of serfdom.
- Money should be put in the hands of the free market, not the state.
- Private money is not only desirable, it is inevitable because hard “commodity-based'' money will inevitably replace soft money.
- Cantillon Effect - Inflation is not simply an average rise in prices. Prices do not rise proportionally or simultaneously. This results in arbitrary and unfair benefits to people who have not created any economic value and detriment to others who have not destroyed anything of economic value by destroying savings. Inflationary fiat money is thus a tax on people who sell their labor for wages and dont hold assets and disincentivizes economic activity, encourages financial speculation, and results in market consolidation.
- The neometalist perspective is that with the advent of internet technology we should create artificially scarce “digital assets” which have the same economic properties as gold and use this as a foundation for a new digital economy and new financial system based on sound money.
- The 21 million tokens of bitcoin is like the supply of gold produced in the supernova reactions of the heavy metals in our solar system.
- Among cryptocurrencies there is a singular token - Bitcoin - which has a “universality” to it like gold because of its anonymous creator and it being the first to arrive on the market.
- Since there is no [pre-mine](../concepts/pre-mine.md) or corporate entity behind bitcoin it has a unique distribution mechanism that rewarded early developers and speculators in a “fair distribution mechanism”, or at least as fair as possible before the crypto bubble and cambrian explosion of other tokens.
- Other tokens dont have the claim to be “digital gold” because their economics favor different mechanisms of being used besides hoarding as a store of value.
- Bitcoin has proved itself resilient against attacks by malicious actors, market shocks, and nation states and thus is uniquely suited to replace gold in the future because it has similar properties without the storage costs.
- Satoshi participated in [many online discussions](https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583.0) about Austrian economics, including Rothbard, Mises and Hayak and the [bitcoin whitepaper](https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf) reflects Austrian ideas about credit, monetary theory and has a strong anti-state anti-interventionist stance.
- In fact bitcoin is a singular almost religious act of creation that can never be repeated in human history. It is the first “apolitical money” whose existence is contingent on the universality of mathematics rather than the political winds and circumstances of humans.
## Concepts Covered
* [gold-standard](../concepts/gold-standard.md)
@ -31,9 +61,6 @@ In Episode 1 of the series, Rufus Pollock and Stephen Diehl discuss the neo-meta
* [value](../concepts/value.md)
* [zero-sum-game](../concepts/zero-sum-game.md)
## Summary
#todo
## References
1. [@taleb_bitcoin_2021-1]

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# Post State Technocracy
Rufus Pollock and Stephen Diehl do a deep dive into the Silicon Valley utopian ideas of crypto assets and explore the notion that crypto assets are a means to create a new form of network state outside of the existing international order.
## Topic
[post-state-technocracy](../concepts/ideologies/post-state-technocracy.md)
## Concepts Covered
#todo
## Summary
#todo
## References

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# The Library
We are maintaining a comprehensive library of articles, papers, books and other materials related to the space and the surrounding discourse. It provides deeper background on specific topics along with everything you need to fully engage with, and evaluate, Web3 and the claims being made about it.
## Browse the Library
Explore our library online here:
https://www.zotero.org/groups/4600269/web3/library