Stub out references for all claims
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# Bitcoin is a means to counter authoritarian regimes
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## References
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* [@bogost_cryptocurrency_2017]
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* [@gerard_salvador_nodate]
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* [@analytica_salvador_2021]
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* [@gerard_salvadors_nodate]
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* [@murray_imf_nodate]
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* [@xie_why_2019]
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* [@kaiser_looming_2018]
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* [@wang_is_2019]
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* [@wang_blockchain_2020]
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# Crypto is not decentralized
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## References
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* [@walch_deconstructing_2019]
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* [@sun_centralized_2021]
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* [@diehl_decentralized_2021]
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* [@schneider_decentralization_2019]
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* [@zhang_aesthetics_2019]
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* [@soatok_against_2021]
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# Crypto is not a solution for the unbanked
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Crypto is not a solution to unbanked, because by its [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) design it [cannot function as a currency](is-bitcoin-currency.md) therefore it is unusable as a scaleable means for purchasing goods and services.
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The purpose of retail banking services is to provide stable, reliable and safe means for citizens to transact with money that is safely custodied by a trusted third party with the guarantees of regulation by the government that the party will hold their accounts on their behalf. This includes practices like customer service, deposit insurance, fraud detection, transaction reversal and issuing of payment cards.
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[Crypto exchanges](../concepts/crypto-exchange.md) cannot function as banks because the do not custody customer deposits and have no deposit insurance. This pushes unnecessary counterparty risk down to consumers and in the event of fraud, insolvency or market shocks customers may be left with no access to their "deposits". This is an unnecessary risk that is strictly worse than traditional banking products and is a form of [predatory inclusion](../concepts/predatory-inclusion.md) with parallels to predatory lending done during the subprime mortgage crisis.
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[Crypto exchanges](../concepts/crypto-exchange.md) cannot function as banks because the do not custody customer deposits and have no deposit insurance. This pushes unnecessary counterparty risk down to consumers and in the event of fraud, insolvency or market shocks customers may be left with no access to their "deposits". This is an unnecessary risk that is strictly worse than traditional banking products and is a form of [predatory inclusion](../concepts/predatory-inclusion.md) with parallels to predatory lending done during the subprime mortgage crisis.
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## References
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* [@koning_bitcoin_2020]
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* [@knauer_what_2019]
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# Bitcoin is the basis for a new gold standard
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## References
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* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
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* [@caferra_bitcoin_2021]
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* [@weisenthal_bitcoin_nodate]
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* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
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# Proof of Work Mining is Harmful to the Environment
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## References
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* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2018]
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* [@vries_bitcoins_2021]
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* [@de_vries_renewable_2019]
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* [@de_vries_bitcoins_2020]
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* [@badea_economic_2021]
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* [@mora_bitcoin_2018]
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* [@gallersdorfer_energy_2020]
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# Bitcoin cannot function as a currency
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Unlike the namesake of "cryptocurrency" might imply, [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) is not a [currency](../concepts/currency.md). It does not fulfil the economic definition of [money](../concepts/money.md). Instead bitcoin is best understood as a [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) [cryptoasset](../concepts/cryptoasset.md) or [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) product.
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Since bitcoin is not issued by a sovereign state or [central-banks](../concepts/central-banks.md) there is no central party to manage the [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) spirals that occur in the [price-formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) of the asset. Therefore it is subject to wild and uncontrollable volatility that makes it unsuitable as a *means of exchange*. No amount of technology can fix the volatility problem as it is a function of the economic design of the asset and its fixed supply. This arises out of the political imaginaries of the [neo-metallism](../notes/neo-metallism.md) school and [austrian-economics](../concepts/ideologies/austrian-economics.md) that informed the design of the bitcoin to resemble the historical [gold-standard](../concepts/gold-standard.md) and the conception of heterodox ideas of [sound-money](../concepts/sound-money.md).
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Bitcoin cannot form the foundation for an economic system because its volatility makes it unsuitable for issuing debt or loan products without extremely large risk premiums to factor in the price risk of the counterparties on long time scales. This makes common products like mortgages nearly impossible to denominate in bitcoin.
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Since bitcoin is [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) it encourages hording instead of spending on [productive enterprises](../concepts/productive-asset.md). This results in mass [market](../concepts/market.md) consolidation and accumulation instead of an environment in which commerce is encouraged. This property makes bitcoin completely antithetical to the entire project of a [currency](../concepts/currency.md) which definitionally exists to be spent.
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Since bitcoin is [deflationary](../concepts/deflationary.md) it encourages hording instead of spending on [productive enterprises](../concepts/productive-asset.md). This results in mass [market](../concepts/market.md) consolidation and accumulation instead of an environment in which commerce is encouraged. This property makes bitcoin completely antithetical to the entire project of a [currency](../concepts/currency.md) which definitionally exists to be spent.
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## References
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* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021-1]
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* [@corradi_disenchantment_2018]
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* [@nabilou_ignorance_2019]
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* [@krugman_brutal_2021]
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* [@krugman_technobabble_2021]
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* [@varoufakis_what_2021]
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@ -21,4 +21,10 @@ And by central bank officials:
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And several notable investors have also described it as a bubble:
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* Warren Buffet
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* George Soros
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* George Soros
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## References
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* [@blanchard_bubbles_1982]
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* [@caferra_bitcoin_2021]
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* [@fry_negative_2016]
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* [@tonelli_internet_2022]
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# Legality of crypto assets
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Crypto assets are unlicensed [security](../concepts/security.md) contracts for unregulated [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) investments. The legality of this depends on jurisdiction.
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Crypto assets are unlicensed [security](../concepts/security.md) contracts for unregulated [speculative](../concepts/speculation.md) investments. The legality of this depends on jurisdiction.
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## References
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* [@hacker_crypto-securities_2018]
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* [@azgad-tromer_crypto_2018]
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* [@ivaniuk_cryptocurrency_2020]
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* [@rae_crypto_2019]
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# What is the narrative of crypto assets?
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Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
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Bitcoin has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
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Dogecoin is an example of a crypto asset with no political imaginaries, no [currency](currency.md) narrative, no pretense of [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no narrative economics whatsoever. it is a pure manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md) with an investment thesis rooted purely in [financial nihilism](ideologies/financial-nihilism.md).
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## References
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* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]
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* [@reijers_blockchain_2018]
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* [@beltramini_cryptoanarchist_2021]
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* [@shiller_narrative_2017]
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* [@may_crypto_1992]
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* [@curran_wikileaks_2013]
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* [@krugman_technobabble_2021]
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* [@krugman_strange_2022]
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Investing in crypto assets is statistically guaranteed to lose money for almost all market participants because as investments they have no [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md). This differs drastically from [productive assets](../concepts/productive-asset.md) such as [stocks](../concepts/stock.md) ,[bonds](../concepts/bond.md) and [real-estate](../concepts/real-estate.md).
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See [assets](../concepts/assets.md) comparison chart for comparison of crypto assets to conventional investments.
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See [assets](../concepts/assets.md) comparison chart for comparison of crypto assets to conventional investments.
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## References
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* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
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* [@fry_negative_2016]
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* [@stivers_alchemy_2019]
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* [@reijers_blockchain_2018]
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# Cryptoassets are being used to build a new internet
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## References
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* [@levine_web3_2022]
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* [@morozov_web3_2022]
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* [@weaver_web3_2021]
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* [@soatok_against_2021]
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* [@tante_third_2021]
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* [@oreilly_why_2021]
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The base economics of crypto assets make them [negative sum](negative-sum.md) which guarantees the amount of loses in the asset class exceed the gains.
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Crypto assets are thus a form of predatory finance with negative [expected-return](../concepts/expected-return.md) much like [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) in a rigged casino.
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Crypto assets are thus a form of predatory finance with negative [expected-return](../concepts/expected-return.md) much like [gambling](../concepts/gambling.md) in a rigged casino.
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## References
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* [@bindseil_encrypted_2022]
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* [@momtaz_entrepreneurial_2020]
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* [@kapsis_should_2021]
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* [@iansiti_truth_2017]
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* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
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* [@krugman_bitcoin_2013]
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* [@glongloff_bitcoin_nodate]
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# Crypto assets pose a risk to the state
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## References
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* [@jeong_bitcoin_2013]
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* [@orcutt_this_2020]
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* [@popper_bitcoin_2020]
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* [@corbet_destabilising_2020]
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* [@ludlow_crypto_2001]
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* [@wolf_libertarian_2019]
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# Crypto assets pose systemic risk to the larger economy
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## References
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* [@momtaz_entrepreneurial_2020]
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* [@zetzsche_ico_2017]
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# Crypto assets do not have a verifiable valuation model
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Crypto tokens have no reliable valuation method. It is not possible to develop a theoretical [value](../concepts/value.md) for a crypto token because there is no demand curve generated by a [use case](../concepts/use-value.md) or any [income-cashflows](../concepts/income-cashflows.md) associated with the [security](../concepts/security.md). Crypto tokens thus have a strictly zero [fundamental-value](../concepts/fundamental-value.md).
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Instead the price of a crypto asset swings about wildly depending on the whims of fluctuating demand and market mania of the [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md). Crypto assets are a manifestation of the [greater-fool-theory](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) and the price of a crypto asset is defined simply by what people believe the next "fool" will pay for it.
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Models such as "Stock To Flow" have shown no predictive power to explain the [price-formation](../concepts/price-formation.md) of assets like [bitcoin](../concepts/bitcoin.md) on long time scales. These models have no rigorous foundations based on any mainstream economics.
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Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar economic structure to crypto tokens.
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Other products in [bubble](../concepts/bubble.md) such as tulips or beanie babies have exhibited similar economic structure to crypto tokens.
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## References
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* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
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Since the asset class is [non-productive](../concepts/productive-asset.md) and [negative-sum](negative-sum.md) the crypto scheme entirely depends on attracting new investor inflows based on narratives of "money for nothing" and "easy wealth" that clash with traditional readings of [economics](../concepts/ideologies/keynsian-economics.md). These schemes may also depend on [technosolutionism](../concepts/ideologies/technosolutionism.md) or [libertarianism](../concepts/ideologies/libertarianism.md) to justify bringing more [greater fools](../concepts/greater-fool-theory.md) into the scheme.
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Crypto culture depends heavily on a distortion of language to signify belonging to an ingroup and leans heavily on [thought terminating cliches](../concepts/thought-terminating-cliches.md) to quell dissent or rational discourse.
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Crypto culture depends heavily on a distortion of language to signify belonging to an ingroup and leans heavily on [thought terminating cliches](../concepts/thought-terminating-cliches.md) to quell dissent or rational discourse. Within the crypto [subculture](../claims/weird-culture.md) there are several thought-terminating cliches.
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* "have fun staying poor" / "hfsp"
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* "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you"
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* "we're all going to make" / "wagmi"
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* "hold on for dear life" / "hodl"
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* "the dollar is a ponzi scheme" / everything is a ponzi"
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* "now do the dollar"
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* "FUD"
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* "few understand"
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* "bullish"
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* "to the moon"
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* "diamond hands"
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## References
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* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]
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* [@olson_line_2022]
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* [@olson_line_2022]
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* [@golumbia_bitcoin_2015]
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# Is web3 a well-defined term?
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Web3 has been [criticised](https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/web3-bullshit.html) as being an intentionally ambiguous buzzword with no precise meaning.
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Web3 does not have any universally agreed upon definition.
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Web3 has been [criticised](https://www.stephendiehl.com/blog/web3-bullshit.html) as being an intentionally ambiguous buzzword.
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Web3 has been accused of becoming an intellectual nexus for many internet "thought leaders" to pontificate about grand visions of technical and financial reconfiguration largely detached from any concrete plans or implementations of these ideas. This may give rise to [bubble](bubble.md) detached from any progress on building real companies or technologies.
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Web3 has also been described as a means of doing [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) on [securites](security.md) offerings to enrich venture capital firms.
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## References
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* [https://web3isgoinggreat.com](https://web3isgoinggreat.com)
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* [https://web3isgoinggreat.com](https://web3isgoinggreat.com)
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* [@diehl_web3_2021]
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* [@weaver_web3_2021]
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* [@white_its_2022]
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* [@morozov_web3_2022]
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* [@patterson_internet_2022]
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* [@oreilly_why_2021]
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Crypto assets are not [commodities](../concepts/commodity.md) because they have no intrinsic value needed to fulfil any productive economic activity or human need. Their definition of [use-value](../concepts/use-value.md) depends on a circular argument.
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Crypto assets may also be a form of [art](../concepts/art.md) under the fuzzy definition of "artistic intent".
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Crypto assets may also be a form of [art](../concepts/art.md) under the fuzzy definition of "artistic intent".
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## Comparables
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Crypto assets have no direct correspondence in traditional markets, but have several pathological equivalences of traditional assets with absurd premises or terms.
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* Zero-coupon perpetual [bond](bond.md)
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* Unspendable [currency](currency.md)
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* [Equity](security.md) with no cash flows or dividends
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* [Commodity](commodity.md) with no use value
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* Exchange traded [pyramid-scheme](pyramid-scheme.md)
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* [Derivative](derivative.md) contract with no underlying
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* [Libertarian](ideologies/libertarianism.md) performance [art](art.md)
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* Self-organizing [ponzi-scheme](ponzi-scheme.md)
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## References
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* [@diehl_intellectual_2021]
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* [@taleb_bitcoin_2021]
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* [@iansiti_truth_2017]
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* [@silverman_crypto_2021]
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* [@krugman_bitcoin_2018]
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* [@weisenthal_bitcoin_nodate]
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* [@fletcher_currency_2013]
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# Artificial Demand
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# Bank Run
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A digital asset that is traded on a [blockchain](blockchain.md).
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Crypto assets have no [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) and are a manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md).
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## Examples
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* [Bitcoin](bitcoin.md)
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* [Ethereum](ethereum.md)
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* [Dogecoin](dogecoin.md)
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## Comparables
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Crypto assets have no direct correspondence in traditional markets, but have several pathological equivalences of traditional assets with absurd premises or terms.
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* Zero-coupon perpetual [bond](bond.md)
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* Unspendable [currency](currency.md)
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* [Equity](security.md) with no cash flows or dividends
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* [Commodity](commodity.md) with no use value
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* Exchange traded [pyramid-scheme](pyramid-scheme.md)
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* [Derivative](derivative.md) contract with no underlying
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* [Libertarian](ideologies/libertarianism.md) performance [art](art.md)
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* Self-organizing [ponzi-scheme](ponzi-scheme.md)
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* [Dogecoin](dogecoin.md)
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# Decentralized Finance (DeFi)
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Defi is a broad category of [smart-contracts](smart-contracts.md) which loosely correspond to digital contracts running on a [blockchain](blockchain.md) which allow users to create collateralized loans out of [stablecoin](stablecoin.md) and which have side payouts in so-called "[governance tokens](governance-token.md)".
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DeFi generally refers to a collection of services which offer lending products offered by non-banks and which exist outside the regulatory perimeter as a form [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and to fund margin trading activities to [speculaate](speculation.md) on [crypto assets](cryptoasset.md).
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See also [yield-farming](yield-farming.md), [amm](amm.md), [dex](dex.md).
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See also [yield farming](yield-farming.md), [AMM](amm.md), [DEX](dex.md).
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# Deposit Insurance
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Insurance a bank holds against its [deposit](deposit.md) to protect depositors from losses by insolvent banks. Instead of being mutualized deposits are backed by a [central banks](central-banks.md).
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See also [bank run](bank-run.md).
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# Deposit
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Money that held on behalf of a client of a [bank](bank.md).
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# Howey Test
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A legal test which defines whether an investment contract is designed as a [security](security.md) under United States law.
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1. Investment of money
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# Narrative Economics
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Ethereum has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [technosolutionism](ideologies/technosolutionism.md), [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
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Bitcoin has a [narrative economics](../claims/narrative-economics.md) based on [libertarianism](ideologies/libertarianism.md), [regulatory arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md) and aspirations of [private money](private-money.md).
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Dogecoin is an example of a crypto asset with no political imaginaries, no [currency](currency.md) narrative, no pretense of [use value](use-value.md), no [fundamental value](fundamental-value.md), and no narrative economics whatsoever. it is a pure manifestation of the [greater fool theory](greater-fool-theory.md) with an investment thesis rooted purely in [financial nihilism](ideologies/financial-nihilism.md).
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# Narrative Economics
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@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
|
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# Securites
|
||||
A legal framework in which counterparties to a country are given time-varying rights to [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) according to a contractual agreement. The legal test for a product being a security is in-part defined by the [Howey Test](howey-test.md).
|
||||
A legal framework in which counterparties to a contract are given time-varying rights to [income-cashflows](income-cashflows.md) according to a contractual agreement. The legal test for a product being a security is in-part defined by the [Howey Test](howey-test.md).
|
||||
|
||||
## Examples
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
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|||
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@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
|
|||
# Shadow Bank
|
||||
|
||||
A shadow banking system refers to a network of unregulated financial intermediaries that facilitate the creation of credit across the global financial system outside of the normal [banking](bank.md) system.
|
||||
|
||||
See also [regulatory-arbitrage](regulatory-arbitrage.md).
|
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|
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@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
|
|||
# Speculation
|
||||
|
||||
Speculation is the taking of a position on an asset with the hope that it will become more valuable on a short time horizon. Speculation plays a part in [price-formation](price-formation.md).
|
||||
|
||||
Some peculators may care little for the [fundamental-value](fundamental-value.md) of the asset and instead focus purely on short-term price movements, public sentiment and momentum.
|
||||
|
|
@ -0,0 +1 @@
|
|||
# Survivorship Bias
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,18 +1,2 @@
|
|||
# Thought Terminating Cliche
|
||||
A acronym or saying that is used within a [high control group](high-control-group.md) to quell dissent or discourage rational inquiry.
|
||||
|
||||
## Examples
|
||||
|
||||
Within the crypto [subculture](../claims/weird-culture.md) there are several thought-terminating cliches.
|
||||
|
||||
* "have fun staying poor" / "hfsp"
|
||||
* "If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you"
|
||||
* "we're all going to make" / "wagmi"
|
||||
* "hold on for dear life" / "hodl"
|
||||
* "the dollar is a ponzi scheme" / everything is a ponzi"
|
||||
* "now do the dollar"
|
||||
* "FUD"
|
||||
* "few understand"
|
||||
* "bullish"
|
||||
* "to the moon"
|
||||
* "diamond hands"
|
||||
A acronym or saying that is used within a [high control group](high-control-group.md) to quell dissent or discourage rational inquiry.
|
||||
|
|
@ -1,8 +1,7 @@
|
|||
# Value
|
||||
|
||||
Value is a subjective concept which refers to the process by which humans measure the worth of physical goods, services or ideas in terms of a fitness function which assigns subjective or objective measure to the referent.
|
||||
|
||||
There are many different types of value definitions.
|
||||
There are many different types of value definitions, but is not exhaustive.
|
||||
|
||||
* [Market value](market-value.md)
|
||||
* [Fundamental value](fundamental-value.md)
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
|
|||
# Zero Sum Game
|
||||
|
||||
An economic game in which involves two sides and where the result is an advantage for one side and a loss for the other. The sum of all gains and losses across all players sums to zero.
|
||||
|
||||
Investing in crypto tokens is necessarily a zero sum games before considering the cost of transactions and network maintenance.
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -45,21 +45,36 @@ Explore crypto and "web3" in terms of the claims made about it. These subclaims
|
|||
* [Are crypto assets a systemic risk to the economy?](../claims/systemic-risk.md)
|
||||
* [Is bitcoin the basis for a new gold standard?](../claims/digital-gold.md)
|
||||
* [Are crypto assets a bubble?](../claims/is-bubble.md)
|
||||
* Are crypto assets a form of gambling?
|
||||
* Are crypto tokens an inflation hedge?
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Inclusion**
|
||||
**Better Society / Financial Inclusion**
|
||||
|
||||
* [Is crypto a solution for the unbanked?](/claims/crypto-unbanked.md)
|
||||
* What consumer protections exist for crypto tokens?
|
||||
* Is crypto investing a form of predatory inclusion?
|
||||
* Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services?
|
||||
* [What is the narrative economics of crypto assets?](../claims/narrative-economics.md)
|
||||
* [Are crypto assets legal?](/claims/legality.md)
|
||||
* [Are crypto tokens a predatory investment?](../claims/predatory-investments.md)
|
||||
* [Are crypto tokens a negative-sum investment?](/claims/negative-sum.md)
|
||||
* Why do people invest in crypto tokens?
|
||||
* Is crypto providing faster payment rails or better remittance services?
|
||||
* [Why does crypto have such a weird subculture?](/claims/weird-culture.md)
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Liberty**
|
||||
|
||||
* Is a unregulated transnational payment rail even desirable?
|
||||
* Are crypto tokens a hedge against the "debasement" of the dollar?
|
||||
* [Are crypto tokens a means to counter authoritarianism?](../claims/authoritarianism.md)
|
||||
* I want to raise money for my non-profit or public goods project?
|
||||
* Can I do a crowdfunded equity raise for my company?
|
||||
|
||||
**Solving Public Goods Problems**
|
||||
|
||||
* Is crypto a means to fund public goods projects?
|
||||
* [Is bitcoin mining harmful to the environment?](../claims/environmental-footprint.md)
|
||||
* Is crypto bringing about the "financialization of everything"?
|
||||
* Is crypto a giant misallocation of resources with an enormous opportunity cost?
|
||||
|
||||
**Financial Innovation**
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -71,13 +86,9 @@ Explore crypto and "web3" in terms of the claims made about it. These subclaims
|
|||
**Creative Destruction**
|
||||
|
||||
* Is web3 a means to dismantle the American tech hegemony?
|
||||
* Is web3 a means to rebuild the global financial system?
|
||||
* Are crypto tokens a means to accelerate the collapse of capitalism?
|
||||
|
||||
**International Politics**
|
||||
|
||||
* [What is the narrative economics of crypto assets?](../claims/narrative-economics.md)
|
||||
* [Are crypto tokens a means to counter authoritarianism?](../claims/authoritarianism.md)
|
||||
|
||||
***
|
||||
|
||||
## Contextual
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -1,5 +1,4 @@
|
|||
# The Library
|
||||
|
||||
We are maintaining a comprehensive library of articles, papers, books and other materials related to the space and the surrounding discourse. It provides deeper background on specific topics along with everything you need to fully engage with, and evaluate, Web3 and the claims being made about it.
|
||||
|
||||
## Browse the Library
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Reference in New Issue