fix: add apply_collateral_change for proper gain/loss rebalancing

The tranche system wasn't redistributing collateral appreciation back to tranche buffers. Added apply_collateral_change() which routes gains through _rebalance_collateral (rebuilds junior buffer first) and losses through the existing waterfall. Parameter sweep results (param_sweep_v2.csv) show: - Low vol (30%): 96% of configs keep senior safe, optimal SR=1.2 MZ=1.35 - Med vol (60%): 89% safe, optimal SR=1.5 MZ=1.20 - High vol (90%): 19% safe, requires SR=1.8 minimum Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-04-03 12:15:12 -07:00 · 2026-04-03 12:15:12 -07:00 · 2b37f59755
parent c48b7ae82a
commit 2b37f59755
2 changed files with 430 additions and 0 deletions
--- a/param_sweep_v2.csv
+++ b/param_sweep_v2.csv
@ -0,0 +1,406 @@
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--- a/src/primitives/risk_tranching.py
+++ b/src/primitives/risk_tranching.py
@ -266,6 +266,30 @@ def apply_loss(
    return system


+def apply_collateral_change(
+    system: RiskTrancheSystem,
+    new_total: float,
+) -> RiskTrancheSystem:
+    """Update total collateral and rebalance tranche backing.
+
+    Call this after any external value change (price appreciation/depreciation).
+    Gains are allocated to rebuild junior buffer first, then excess to junior.
+    Losses are routed through apply_loss waterfall.
+    """
+    old_total = system.total_collateral
+    delta = new_total - old_total
+
+    if delta < 0:
+        # Loss — use the waterfall
+        apply_loss(system, abs(delta))
+    elif delta > 0:
+        # Gain — rebuild junior buffer first, then excess stays in junior
+        system.total_collateral = new_total
+        _rebalance_collateral(system)
+
+    return system
+
+
 def check_liquidation(system: RiskTrancheSystem) -> dict[str, bool]:
    """Check if any tranche needs liquidation."""
    p = system.params