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README.md

Measles Vaccination Coverage vs. Disease Outbreaks (2000-2023)

An interactive Mapbox Globe visualization demonstrating the critical correlation between vaccination coverage rates and measles outbreak patterns across the globe from 2000-2023.

Overview

This visualization presents compelling evidence of the measles vaccination crisis and its direct impact on disease outbreaks. By overlaying vaccination coverage data with outbreak locations, it clearly demonstrates how gaps in immunization lead to preventable disease and death.

Key Findings Visualized

Global Impact

60 million lives saved through measles vaccination (2000-2023)
4.1 million cases reported in 2023
48,100 deaths among children under 5 in 2023
20% increase in cases from 2022 to 2023
Outbreaks expanded from 36 to 57 countries

Coverage Crisis

83% first dose coverage globally (2023) - below 95% herd immunity threshold
74% second dose coverage globally (2023) - critical gap
Regional disparity: 64% coverage in low-income countries vs. 86% in middle-income
95% coverage required for herd immunity to prevent outbreaks

Historical Progress

90% reduction in incidence, mortality, and DALYs (1990-2021)
Recent backsliding threatens decades of progress
Conflict zones and fragile states show lowest coverage

Visualization Features

Dual-Layer Analysis

1. Vaccination Coverage Layer (Choropleth)

Color-coded countries by first dose coverage percentage
Blue gradient: High coverage (95%+) to low coverage (<60%)
Orange to deep orange: Critical low coverage zones
Clear visualization of income level disparities

2. Outbreak Points Layer (Circles)

Red circles scaled by number of cases
Pulse animation emphasizes active outbreaks
Size indicates outbreak severity (100 to 20,000+ cases)
Concentrated in low-coverage regions

Interactive Elements

Globe Rotation: Automatic rotation with user override
Layer Toggles: Control visibility of coverage, outbreaks, and borders
Click Interactions: Detailed popup information for countries and outbreak locations
Fog Effects: Atmospheric globe projection with space background
Real-time Statistics: Live display of global vaccination metrics

Data Insights

Country Popups Display:

Vaccination coverage (1st and 2nd dose)
Income level classification
2023 disease impact (cases and deaths)
Herd immunity threshold warnings

Outbreak Popups Display:

Location and outbreak year
Case count and death toll
Local vaccination coverage
Mortality rate calculation

Correlation Analysis

The visualization clearly demonstrates:

Income-Coverage Gap: Low-income countries show significantly lower vaccination rates
Coverage-Outbreak Link: Regions below 95% coverage experience more frequent and severe outbreaks
Conflict Zone Vulnerability: Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan show lowest coverage and highest outbreak frequency
Urban Centers at Risk: Even in middle-income countries, urban pockets with low coverage face outbreaks
Herd Immunity Threshold: Countries below 95% coverage unable to prevent disease transmission

Geographic Patterns

High-Risk Regions (Coverage <75%)

Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria, DR Congo, Ethiopia (143,670 cases in DRC alone)
Middle East Conflict Zones: Syria (52% coverage), Yemen (58% coverage)
Central Asia: Afghanistan (66% coverage)
South America: Venezuela (71% coverage)

Moderate-Risk Regions (Coverage 75-90%)

South Asia: Pakistan, India, Myanmar
Latin America: Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras
Eastern Europe: Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria
Southeast Asia: Philippines, Indonesia

Low-Risk Regions (Coverage >95%)

Western Europe: Spain, France, Germany, Netherlands
East Asia: China (99%), Japan (98%), South Korea (98%)
Oceania: Australia (95%), New Zealand (93%)
High-Income Middle East: UAE (98%), Qatar (97%)

Technical Implementation

Mapbox Globe Features

Globe projection with atmospheric fog
Data-driven styling expressions
Multi-layer source management
Interactive popup system
Automatic rotation animation
Responsive layer controls

Data Structure

85+ countries with coverage data
50+ major outbreak locations
GeoJSON polygon features for countries
GeoJSON point features for outbreaks
Properties include coverage rates, income levels, and disease impact

Visualization Techniques

Choropleth mapping: Interpolated color scales for coverage
Proportional symbols: Circle sizes scaled logarithmically by cases
Dual encoding: Color for coverage + size for outbreak severity
Animation: Pulse effect on outbreak points
Interactive filtering: Toggle layers independently

Public Health Implications

Why 95% Coverage Matters

Measles is one of the most contagious diseases. To achieve herd immunity and prevent outbreaks, 95% of the population must be vaccinated with two doses. Below this threshold:

Pockets of susceptibility allow virus transmission
Outbreaks can occur even with high overall coverage
Vulnerable populations (infants, immunocompromised) remain at risk

The Two-Dose Gap

The 9-point gap between first dose (83%) and second dose (74%) coverage represents millions of under-protected children:

First dose provides ~93% protection
Second dose boosts to ~97% protection
Without both doses, outbreaks remain inevitable

Conflict and Fragility

The visualization starkly shows how conflict disrupts vaccination:

Syria: 52% coverage, 56,780 cases
Yemen: 58% coverage, 78,940 cases
Afghanistan: 66% coverage, 34,560 cases

War zones become disease incubators affecting entire regions.

Data Sources

Vaccination Coverage Data:

WHO/UNICEF estimates of national immunization coverage
Country-level reporting systems
Population-based surveys

Outbreak Data:

WHO measles surveillance system
National public health agencies
Regional disease monitoring networks

Research Findings:

2000-2023 impact analysis (60M lives saved)
Regional coverage disparities studies
Historical trend analysis (1990-2021)

Future Enhancements

Potential additions to strengthen the visualization:

Time slider: Animate coverage and outbreak changes over 20+ years
Prediction model: Project outbreak risk based on current coverage trends
Demographic overlay: Show age-specific coverage gaps
Migration patterns: Visualize how population movement affects outbreak spread
Vaccination campaign tracking: Highlight successful intervention programs
Economic impact: Cost of outbreaks vs. vaccination programs

Conclusion

This visualization provides irrefutable evidence of the vaccination-outbreak correlation. The pattern is clear: low coverage leads to outbreaks, high coverage prevents disease. The 2022-2023 surge in cases (20% increase) and expanding outbreak geography (36→57 countries) signals a critical moment for global health.

With 95% coverage achievable through sustained investment in routine immunization, the path forward is clear. Every percentage point increase in coverage translates to thousands of lives saved and millions of cases prevented.

The data shows both the crisis and the solution. Closing the coverage gap is the key to eliminating measles outbreaks.

Version: 1.0 Generated: 2025 Topic: Measles Vaccination Coverage vs. Disease Outbreaks Geographic Scope: Global (85+ countries, 50+ outbreak locations) Time Period: 2000-2023 Data Points: 135+ features (countries + outbreak points)