05 — Augmented Bonding Curve & Market Analysis

The core questions:

1. How did the ABC price track vs secondary market (Honeyswap/Velodrome)?
2. Was the buy/sell ratio sustainable? (Spoiler: 2,217 sells vs 398 buys)
3. How much tribute revenue did the ABC generate?
4. How concentrated was token ownership?
5. Did price discovery happen on the ABC or the DEX?

ABC trades (detailed): 2615 rows, 2022-01-25 to 2023-12-18
ABC trades (all):      32000 rows
DEX trades:            26107 rows, 2022-01-15 to 2026-03-31
  Projects: <StringArray>
['honeyswap', 'velodrome']
Length: 2, dtype: str
ABC action counts: {'Sell': 2217, 'Buy': 398}

1. ABC Price History & Reserve Ratio

ABC Price Stats:
  Peak: 2.9444 xDAI
  Trough: 0.3613 xDAI
  Drawdown: -87.7%

Reserve:
  Peak: 1,119,156 xDAI
  Final: 111,623 xDAI

Supply:
  Peak: 2,451,021 TEC
  Final: 1,546,631 TEC

2. Buy/Sell Asymmetry — The Structural Pressure

/tmp/ipykernel_56299/821195215.py:3: UserWarning: Converting to PeriodArray/Index representation will drop timezone information.
  abc_monthly['month'] = abc_monthly['date'].dt.to_period('M').dt.to_timestamp()

Buy/Sell Analysis:
  Total buys: 398 txns, 865,057 xDAI
  Total sells: 2217 txns, 1,031,596 xDAI
  Sell:Buy ratio (count): 5.6:1
  Sell:Buy ratio (volume): 1.2:1
  Net outflow: 166,538 xDAI

3. ABC Tribute Revenue

Tribute Revenue:
  Buy tribute: 210,490.63 xDAI
  Sell tribute: 119,413.19 xDAI
  Total: 329,903.82 xDAI

4. Primary (ABC) vs Secondary (DEX) Market

Where did price discovery happen? Did the ABC price diverge from the DEX price?

Price Spread Stats:
  Mean spread: -9.6%
  Median spread: -11.6%
  Max DEX premium: 43.6%
  Max DEX discount: -40.7%
  Days with DEX discount: 433/501

5. Token Holder Concentration

Holder Concentration:
  Total holders: 723
  Top 1 (gideonro.eth): 13.2% of supply
  Top 10: 50.7% of supply
  50% of supply held by top 10 holders
  80% of supply held by top 43 holders

6. Holder Growth Over Time

Holder dynamics:
  gnosis: peak 737 holders, final 732, net change +728
  optimism: peak 814 holders, final 723, net change +2

7. DEX Volume & Liquidity

/tmp/ipykernel_56299/1410140200.py:3: UserWarning: Converting to PeriodArray/Index representation will drop timezone information.
  dex_all['month'] = dex_all['date'].dt.to_period('M').dt.to_timestamp()

DEX Activity:
  Total trades: 26107
  honeyswap: 20404 trades
  velodrome: 5703 trades

8. The 500K Whale — Largest ABC Participant

Wallet 0xf5dcd98a...12f35497 made a single 499,803 xDAI purchase on Jan 31, 2022 — the largest ABC buy in TEC history, representing 46.5% of all ABC buy volume. This section traces their complete entry/exit trajectory and tribute contribution.

500K WHALE DEEP DIVE (0xf5dcd98a1c99c2c65c62025cb23cfb6f12f35497)
=================================================================

ENTRY (2 buys on Jan 25, 2022):
  Total spent: 499,803 xDAI (incl 109,957 xDAI entry tribute)
  TEC minted:  207,906 TEC
  Avg price:   2.4040 xDAI/TEC (all-in)
  This single purchase was 57.8% of ALL ABC buy volume

EXIT (6 sells, May 2022 - Jun 2023):
  2022-05-16:     24,939 TEC @ 6.33 xDAI/TEC =    157,906 xDAI (exit tribute: 13,731)
  2022-06-06:      7,338 TEC @ 6.81 xDAI/TEC =     50,000 xDAI (exit tribute: 4,945)
  2022-11-01:      2,049 TEC @ 6.59 xDAI/TEC =     13,498 xDAI (exit tribute: 1,841)
  2023-02-12:      1,628 TEC @ 8.75 xDAI/TEC =     14,249 xDAI (exit tribute: 1,943)
  2023-05-01:        850 TEC @ 12.58 xDAI/TEC =     10,693 xDAI (exit tribute: 1,458)
  2023-06-09:        358 TEC @ 14.97 xDAI/TEC =      5,366 xDAI (exit tribute: 732)
  Total received: 251,713 xDAI from 37,163 TEC sold

TRIBUTE CONTRIBUTION:
  Entry tribute: 109,957 xDAI
  Exit tribute:  24,650 xDAI
  Total:         134,606 xDAI to common pool

NET POSITION:
  Realized P&L:  -248,090 xDAI (-49.6%)
  TEC remaining: 170,743 (from ABC) + ~50,000 (from Hatch)
  Current holder rank: #36 with 6,203 TEC
  Implied disposal: ~214,540 TEC transferred/sold elsewhere

9. Key Findings

======================================================================
ABC & MARKET ANALYSIS — KEY FINDINGS
======================================================================

BONDING CURVE MECHANICS:
  Price peak: 2.94 xDAI
  Price final: 0.36 xDAI
  Drawdown: -88%
  Reserve peak: 1,119,156 xDAI → 111,623

STRUCTURAL SELL PRESSURE:
  Buy transactions: 398 (15%)
  Sell transactions: 2217 (85%)
  Sell:Buy ratio: 5.6:1
  The ABC experienced persistent, overwhelming sell pressure.

TRIBUTE REVENUE:
  Total: 329,904 xDAI
  This was far too small to sustain common pool operations.

HOLDER CONCENTRATION:
  723 total holders
  Top holder (gideonro.eth): 13.2%
  Top 10: 50.7%

CRITICAL QUESTIONS:
  1. Did the ABC entry tribute discourage buying? (effectively a tax on participation)
  2. Did the exit tribute slow selling enough, or just reduce returns?
  3. Was the reserve ratio appropriate for the level of volatility?
  4. Could the ABC have functioned better with different parameters?
  5. Did DEX liquidity create a cheaper exit path that undermined the ABC?